July 29, 2022

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — July 29, 2022

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published July 29, 2022

The U.S. Cannabis Spot Index decreased 2.1% to $1,047 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased $40 to $1,306 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $570 to $2,041 per pound range. The average reported deal size increased to 2.5 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.31 and the simple average price was $2.88.

 

The relative transaction frequency of indoor product fell 1%, while that of deals for greenhouse product was unchanged. Outdoor transaction frequency rose 1%. 

 

 

The relative volume of indoor product fell 2%, while that of greenhouse flower rose 1%. Outdoor flower’s relative volume rose 1%. 

 

The New York State Cannabis Control Board (CCB) approved final regulations for the issuance of Conditional Adult-Use Retail Dispensary licenses. Potential licensees must have been “impacted by the enforcement of the prohibition of cannabis” and must also demonstrate “strong business backgrounds.” The CCB says licensed retail dispensaries will make the first legal sales of adult use cannabis in the state, selling products grown in New York “before the end of the year.” The approved regulations governing the Conditional Adult-Use Licenses will be effective August 3, 2022.  

 

The (CCB) approved an additional 20 Adult-Use Conditional Cultivators licenses, bringing the total number of such licenses to 223 entities licensed to grow cannabis in the state. CCB says they have received “over 250” applications for Adult-Use Conditional Cultivators licenses.

 

August 2022 Implied Forward unchanged to close at $1,070 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 85 pounds. The proportions of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 47%, 36%, and 18% of forward arrangements, respectively.

 

The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 89 pounds, 90 pounds, and 66 pounds, respectively.

 

 

At $1,070 per pound, the August 2022 Implied Forward represents a premium of 2.2% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,047 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines from this week's Premium Report:

Illinois

Finally – Illinois Awards 149 Dispensary Licenses

California

Industry Group Head Navigates Complex Market – Interview

Oklahoma

Lawyers’ License Scam

Are you a licensed market participant in the U.S. or Canada? 

Do you support wholesale market transparency?

Become a member of our Price Contributor Network and receive discounted pricing and exclusive analysis!

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

29 July 2022.  Copyright © 2022 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

July 22, 2022

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — July 22, 2022

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published July 22, 2022

The U.S. Cannabis Spot Index increased 1.0% to $1,069 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $9 to $1,345 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $589 to $2,101 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 2.4 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.36 and the simple average price was $2.97.

 

The relative transaction frequency of indoor product fell 2%, while that of deals for greenhouse product rose 1%. Outdoor transaction frequency was unchanged.

 

 

The relative volume of indoor product fell 2%, while that of greenhouse flower rose 1%. Outdoor flower’s relative volume rose 2%.

 

The Cannabis Benchmarks U.S. Spot Index inched up $11 this week to trade just under $1,070 per pound, even as legacy state spot prices mostly saw declines. California spot was off $10, Colorado spot was off $12, and Washington State spot shed $30 this week.

 

Among the newer states, the most expensive marijuana is still found in Illinois, where spot price was off $17 this week, trading just over the $3,500 handle. As long as the market remains an oligopoly, prices will remain near the top of the heap. Michigan prices remain under pressure, dropping just over $40 pound this week.

 

Massachusetts spot price fell through the $2,100 per pound level two weeks ago and remains in a steep downtrend. The market is massively oversold by any technical measure, but it is hard to see how the market rebounds without a base – prices trading in a tight range for several weeks in a row. The pressure on Massachusetts is only going to increase as more states in the Northeast open adult use sales over the next year or so.

 

The sand states were mostly lower, with New Mexico dropping $21 in the week, and Arizona sheddding $38 per pound. Nevada spot slid $12 while the Oklahoma spot built some decent support , but still slid $5 per pound this week. 

 

August 2022 Implied Forward assessed down $15 to $1,070 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 87 pounds. The proportions of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 48%, 34%, and 18% of forward arrangements, respectively.

 

The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 90 pounds, 94 pounds, and 66 pounds, respectively.

 

 

At $1,070 per pound, the August 2022 Implied Forward represents a premium of 0.1% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,069 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines from this week's Premium Report:

California

The Future is Now In Humboldt County – Interview

Colorado

May Adult Use Sales Drop 19.2% Year-on-Year

Michigan

June Cannabis Sales Surge, Up 25.8% Year-on-Year

Massachusetts

Adult Use Sales Inch up 1.4% in June Even as Prices Drop

Are you a licensed market participant in the U.S. or Canada? 

Do you support wholesale market transparency?

Become a member of our Price Contributor Network and receive discounted pricing and exclusive analysis!

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

22 July 2022.  Copyright © 2022 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

July 8, 2022

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — July 15, 2022

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published July 15, 2022

The U.S. Cannabis Spot Index increased 1.3% to $1,058 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $3 to $1,336 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $610 to $2,062 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 2.4 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.33 and the simple average price was $2.95.

 

The relative transaction frequency of indoor product rose 1%, while that of deals for greenhouse product was unchanged. Outdoor transaction frequency rose 1%.   

   

 

The relative volume of indoor product was unchanged, while that of greenhouse flower rose 2%. Outdoor flower’s relative volume fell 2%.

 

This week’s Premium Report contains analysis illustrating the effects of the opening of legal adult use cannabis markets on medical cannabis prices, patient populations, and sales volumes in selected states. The states in question – Colorado, Arizona, Michigan, and Illinois – were selected due to the availability of official data, in addition to the related fact that all hosted licensed and regulated medical cannabis markets prior to the start of legal adult use sales. (On the other hand, states such as California, Oregon, and Washington legalized medical cannabis prior to standing up adult use commerce, but the medical cannabis markets in those states were largely informal and untracked.)  

 

Due to significant differences in the maturity, size, and regulatory structures of the cannabis markets under discussion, it is not prudent to attempt to divine any single overarching effect of adult use sales on pre-existing medical cannabis commerce. Consequently, the data included in the Premium Report should be taken as individual case studies, rather than being representative of definitive trends that can be predictive for future scenarios. 

 

That said, by comparing the states under discussion with those with analogous features, the data contained in this report could be used to extrapolate potential courses that price, patient counts, and sales volumes may take in states with medical cannabis programs that have recently or will in the future open licensed adult use markets.

 

To learn more about the Cannabis Benchmarks Premium Report, click here.

 

August 2022 Implied Forward assessed down $15 to $1,085 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 89 pounds. The proportions of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 47%, 35%, and 18% of forward arrangements, respectively.

 

The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 91 pounds, 95 pounds, and 70 pounds, respectively.

 

 

At $1,085 per pound, the August 2022 Implied Forward represents a premium of 2.5% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,058 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines from this week's Premium Report:

Special Analysis

Adult Use Legalization’s Impact on Medical Markets in Colorado, Arizona, Michigan, Illinois

Montana

June Sales Up Slightly MoM, But Remain Down from Spring

Are you a licensed market participant in the U.S. or Canada? 

Do you support wholesale market transparency?

Become a member of our Price Contributor Network and receive discounted pricing and exclusive analysis!

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

15 July 2022.  Copyright © 2022 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — July 8, 2022

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published July 8, 2022

The U.S. Cannabis Spot Index decreased 1.2% to $1,044 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased $21 to $1,333 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $594 to $2,073 per pound range. The average reported deal size was 2.4 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.30 and the simple average price was $2.94.

 

The relative transaction frequency of indoor product rose 1%, while that of greenhouse product fell1%. Outdoor transactions were unchanged.  

    

 

The relative volume of indoor grown rose 1%, while that of greenhouse flower was unchanged. Outdoor volume fell 1%.  

 

The most expensive wholesale adult use cannabis markets tracked by Cannabis Benchmarks are Alaska, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Nevada, and New Mexico. Every state market saw a rise in cannabis prices leading into adult use legalization and a drop in price as markets became well supplied. The common factor among the most expensive markets is non-existent or limited outdoor supply, along with other state-specific factors.

 

Massachusetts regulators say they encourage outdoor cultivation through various license incentives. However, the market is certainly not flooded with outdoor flower and, given the state’s climate, it is doubtful outdoor growers will be able to produce supply sufficient to challenge the indoor market monopoly. Massachusetts prices have undergone a brutal sell-off this year, losing 39% in the spot market in what has been characterized as a money raising effort by large firms needing to pay down expansion costs. 

 

Illinois cannabis is likely to remain at the top of the most expensive cannabis markets due to limited licensing, licensing delays due to lawsuits, and the fact that the state is surrounded by states with no legal adult use cannabis market. Additionally, outdoor cultivation is not permitted in the state. Illinois spot has also tanked this year despite growing demand and a monopolized market. There is some that speculation large players in this market needed to raise money and did so by shedding inventory on a massive scale.

 

Alaska prices remain high due to the lack of significant outdoor product and the presence of a tax-induced hard floor under price. As well, contacts in the state say customers prefer very high THC potency, the demand for which is crowding out less expensive product. While local option rules have restricted retail locations, price competition remains well above the tax-determined hard floor of $800 per pound of flower. Alaska spot price did sell off this spring, dropping from over $3,600 down to near $2,800 per pound, but there has been a bit of a rebound to just over $2,900 per pound as tourists return in a post-pandemic rush. 

 

Nevada cannabis prices have remained within a $400 per pound range since February 2021, holding steady as the end of pandemic economic support met with a surge in jobs and a return to post-pandemic tourism figures. Local contacts say there is some outdoor product in the market, although it does not appear to have significantly affected spot pricing. 

 

These states are likely to remain at the top end of cannabis prices unless state-specific rules change or outdoor growers proliferate due to a combination of innovation and / or massive land and licensing investment.

 

August 2022 Implied Forward assessed down $25 to $1,100 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 90 pounds. The proportions of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 46%, 35%, and 19% of forward arrangements, respectively.

 

The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 94 pounds, 95 pounds, and 69 pounds, respectively.

 

 

At $1,100 per pound, the August 2022 Implied Forward represents a premium of 5.3% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,044 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines from this week's Premium Report:

New Mexico

June Sales Soften; 2nd Straight Decline After Adult Use Market Opened in April

Oregon

June Harvest Drops YoY for the First Time

Nevada

April Sales Return to Trend, Down 7.6%

Illinois

June Sales Slip 2.3%

Are you a licensed market participant in the U.S. or Canada? 

Do you support wholesale market transparency?

Become a member of our Price Contributor Network and receive discounted pricing and exclusive analysis!

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

8 July 2022.  Copyright © 2022 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

July 1, 2022

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — July 1, 2022

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published July 1, 2022

The U.S. Cannabis Spot Index decreased 0.9% to $1,057 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased $17 to $1,354 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $591 to $2,118 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 2.5 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.33 and the simple average price was $2.99.

 

The relative transaction frequency of indoor product fell 1%, while those of greenhouse and outdoor product were essentially unchanged.      

 

 

The relative volumes of each grow type were stable from last week.

 

U.S. Spot price is down $10 this week to $1,057 per pound as legacy and newer markets continue to catch a shellacking from various combinations of oversupply, abundant competition, and uncapped licensing.  

 

Prices for outdoor flower in legacy states remain in a strong downtrend. Prices for this most abundant grow type will likely form the basis for an eventual futures contract, This would greatly benefit the industry, allowing for hedging against price fluctuations and creating price – and profit – certainty.

 

January 2023 Implied Forward initially assessed at $1,075 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size increased to 91 pounds. The proportions of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 45%, 36%, and 19% of forward arrangements, respectively.

 

The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 96 pounds, 96 pounds, and 69 pounds, respectively.

 

 

At $1,125 per pound, the August 2022 Implied Forward represents a premium of 6.4% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,057 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines from this week's Premium Report:

California

Legislature Bids Farewell to Cultivation Tax

Cannabis Businesses Take on Prop 64 Opt-Out Towns

New York

New York Opens Processor Licensing Window

National

Hopes Rise for SAFE Banking Act Passage

Are you a licensed market participant in the U.S. or Canada? 

Do you support wholesale market transparency?

Become a member of our Price Contributor Network and receive discounted pricing and exclusive analysis!

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

1 July 2022.  Copyright © 2022 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved