September 27, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — September 27, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published September 27, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 0.5% to $1,412 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased $21 to $1,586 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $891 to $2,280 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 1.8 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $3.11 and the simple average price was $3.50.

 

The relative frequency of trades for each grow type was largely stable this week, with only a marginal decrease in that for indoor flower visible in the chart below. Greenhouse product’s share of the total documented weight moved nationally expanded by almost 2% this week. The relative volume of outdoor flower contracted by the same proportion, while that for warehouse product was unchanged.

 

 

The U.S. Spot Index rose by 0.5% this week to settle at $1,412 per pound. While in previous years the attention of wholesale market participants at this point in the season has typically been focused on securing product from the upcoming autumn crop, the current crisis of individuals falling ill and even dying from vaping has the potential to inject significant uncertainty into legal cannabis markets. At this point, consumer response to warnings by federal and state regulators is not entirely clear. 

 

Although demand for vape products could be suppressed overall, reports attributing the bulk of the problem to products from illicit sources could actually drive greater purchasing in legal markets, where products are tested for contaminants to varying extents. However, this week Massachusetts’ governor declared a temporary ban on all vape products, both cannabis and nicotine. If any of the major legal cannabis states follow suit, wholesale markets for trim and sun-grown flower used for extraction would likely be impacted, while demand for smokable flower could expand.

Trends in adult-use and medical cannabis flower pricing observed earlier this month were disrupted this week. The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers declined this week, due primarily to a significant downturn in the recreational sector of California’s market. 

 

On the other hand, prices for medical flower jumped on increases in Arizona, Massachusetts, Maine, New Mexico, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Washington, D.C. 

 

October Forward closes up $50 to $1,300 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size declined 1 pound to 46 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 57%, 28%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 43 pounds, 42 pounds, and 63 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,300 per pound, the October Forward represents a discount of 8.0% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,412 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

  • Reports State Entirety of Legal Market Will Be Using Required Traceability System by End of October
  •  
  • Colorado

    Wholesale Prices Continue to Climb on Strong Demand, With Increased Market Consolidation Possibly Also Contributing

  • Oregon

  • Summer Weather Conditions and Those Forecast for October Appear Generally Favorable for Outdoor Growers
  •  
  • Washington

  • State Tax Collection Data Shows Retail Demand Reaching Record Heights in August
  •  
  • Massachusetts

  • Adult-Use Sales Continued to Expand in August, but Temporary Ban on Vape Products Could Stymie Previously Consistent Growth

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

27 September 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

September 20, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — September 20, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published September 20, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 1.1% to $1,405 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $7 to $1,607 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $890 to $2,323 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 2.0 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $3.10 and the simple average price was $3.54.

 

The relative frequency of trades for greenhouse flower increased by over 2% this week. The relative frequency of transactions involving indoor product decreased by the same proportion, while that for outdoor flower was stable. Greenhouse product’s share of the total documented weight moved nationally expanded by almost 3% this week. The relative volume of outdoor flower contracted by the same proportion, while that for warehouse product was unchanged. 

 

 

The U.S. Spot Index rose by 1.1% this week to settle at $1,405 per pound. This is the latest in the year that a new annual peak has been established by the U.S. Spot in over three years, disrupting a trend of such milestones being set earlier each year. In 2016, the annual high occurred in late May; it was observed in late March in 2017, and in the first week of the year in 2018. 

 

Prices in California, Colorado, and Washington State continued to climb at relatively measured paces this week, while Oregon’s composite rate jumped by a more significant amount once again. As we noted above, Massachusetts’ legal cannabis market is now the most expensive in the country. However, it does not wield significant influence on the U.S. Spot Index as it is currently still much smaller than the Western markets, particularly in terms of the volume of flower traded.

Similar to last week, the national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers jumped this week as nearly every market in which adult-use sales are taking place saw rates for such product increase, with Alaska and Nevada the only exceptions. Prices for medical flower slipped for the third straight week on decreases in that sector of the market in California, as well as in Arizona, Illinois, Michigan, Maine, New Mexico, and some other smaller medical-only markets.

 

October Forward assessed up $50 to $1,250 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size declined 1 pound to 46 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 57%, 28%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 43 pounds, 42 pounds, and 63 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,250 per pound, the October Forward represents a discount of 11% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,405 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

  • State Spot Index Climbs to Approach $1,300 Per Pound; Rates for Flower Designated as Adult-Use Settled Above $1,500 Per Pound This Week
  •  
  • Colorado

    Composite Price Ascends to New Annual Peak This Week and is Up About 40% Year-Over-Year

  • Oregon

  • Wholesale Prices Continue to Climb, But Some Market Participants Expect a Larger Drop in Rates from the Fall Harvest Compared to Last Year
  •  
  • Washington

  • State Spot Index Jumps to New Year-to-Date High This Week, Defying Post-Labor Day Trends from Prior Years
  •  
  • Illinois

  • Medical Cannabis Demand Continues to Boom Ahead of Adult-Use Sales; Wholesale Revenues for August Reached a New Record High for the Third Straight Month

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

20 September 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

September 13, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — September 13, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published September 13, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 1.1% to $1,389 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $4 to $1,600 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $854 to $2,347 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 2.1 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $3.06 and the simple average price was $3.53.

 

The relative frequency of trades for outdoor flower increased by 1% this week. The relative frequency of transactions involving indoor product decreased by the same proportion, while that for greenhouse flower was stable. Greenhouse product’s share of the total documented weight moved nationally contracted by almost 3% this week. The relative volumes of warehouse and outdoor flower grew by about 2% and 1%, respectively.

 

 

The U.S. Spot Index rose by 1.1% this week to settle at $1,389 per pound. Upticks in the weekly composite prices of Colorado, Oregon, Washington, and Nevada, as well as the mid-sized markets of Michigan, Massachusetts, and Illinois, outweighed declines in California and Arizona.  

 

The opening half of September has seen the U.S. Spot level off a bit just below its current annual peak of $1,404 per pound, documented in the final week of August. While the behavior of wholesale cannabis prices in the weeks ahead depend largely on the fall harvest, it must be noted that available historical sales data from both adult-use and medical markets indicates that demand tends to subside in the period from September through November. Still, as we point out in regard to Colorado, lower demand in the coming months could still be stronger relative to that observed in the same period in recent years.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers jumped this week as nearly every market in which adult-use sales are taking place saw rates for such product increase, with Alaska the only exception. Prices for medical flower slipped again this week, primarily on decreases in that sector of the market in California, as well as in Arizona, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and some other smaller medical-only markets. 

 

October Forward unchanged at $1,200 per pound. The average reported forward deal size was 47 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 58%, 26%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 43 pounds, 44 pounds, and 63 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,200 per pound, the October Forward represents a discount of 13.6% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,389 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

  • Number of Active Cultivation Licenses Up Over 25% From July After Changes to Provisional Licensing
  •  
  • Colorado

    July Sales Once Again Set New Record in State’s Legal System as Unprecedented Demand Drives Up Wholesale Prices

  • Oregon

  • Demand Reached New Heights in August But Illnesses and Deaths Linked to Vaping Could Dent Sales this Month
  •  
  • Washington

  • Upward Trend in Prices That Persisted from April Appears to be Leveling Off
  •  
  • Massachusetts

  • Corruption and Other Allegations Could Prevent About a Dozen Businesses Seeking Licenses from Entering State’s Growing Adult-Use Market

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

13 September 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

September 6, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — September 6, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published September 6, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 2.2% to $1,374 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased $10 to $1,596 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $845 to $2,346 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 2.2 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $3.03 and the simple average price was $3.52.

 

The relative frequency of trades for outdoor flower increased by 1% this week. The relative frequency of transactions involving greenhouse product decreased by the same proportion, while that for indoor flower was stable. Warehouse product’s share of the total documented weight moved nationally contracted by about 3% this week. The relative volumes of greenhouse and outdoor flower each expanded by over 1%.

 

 

The U.S. Spot Index declined by 2.2% this week to settle at $1,374 per pound. Decreases in the weekly composite prices of California and Washington State lifted the national average, outweighing small increases in the Spot rates of Colorado, Oregon, and Nevada. However, even as overall prices slipped in California and Washington, the volume-weighted rates for indoor flower in both of those states ascended to new annual peaks this week. 

 

Turning to some of the country’s mid-sized markets, Massachusetts, Illinois, and New Mexico all saw upticks in their Spot prices this week. Complete August sales figures have yet to be published for Massachusetts’ adult-use market, but demand has been climbing all year with only about a dozen producers licensed to generate supply for general consumers. Local zoning issues in Illinois are raising the possibility that the maximum of 110 adult-use storefronts may not be able to open as smoothly as some anticipated come 2020, which would stymie access and demand in the licensed system somewhat.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers was essentially flat this week, as declines in Washington State and Nevada slightly outweighed modest increases in the other adult-use markets. 

 

Prices for medical flower slipped after a significant rise last week, mainly on a sizeable week-over-week decrease in rates reported in that sector of California’s market. Several of the small East Coast medical cannabis markets also saw declines in their Spot Indices this week.

 

March 2020 Forward initially assessed at $1,225 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 45 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 59%, 24%, and 17% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 43 pounds, 40 pounds, and 63 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,200 per pound, the October Forward represents a discount of 12.6% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,374 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

  • State Spot Index Averaged Over $1,250 Per Pound in August, the Highest Monthly Price Observed in 2019
  •  
  • Colorado

    Summer’s Upward Trend in Wholesale Prices Continued to Open September as State Spot, Rates for Indoor and Greenhouse Flower, All Climbed to New Annual Highs

  • Oregon

  • Wholesale Price Recovery Persisted in August, but Rate of Upward Momentum Slowed
  •  
  • Washington

  • Volume-Weighted Prices for Indoor and Outdoor flower Rose to New Year-to-Date Peaks this Week
  •  
  • New Mexico

  • Official Data Shows Production Expanded in Q2 Due to Increase in Allowed Plant Count; State Spot Index Decreased in that Period as Supply Outpaced Demand

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

6 September 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved