U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published October 25, 2019
U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 2.0% to $1,459 per pound.
The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $49 to $1,663 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $969 to $2,356 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 2.0 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $3.22 and the simple average price was $3.67.
The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower increased by 1% this week. The relative frequency of deals for outdoor product decreased by the same proportion, while that for greenhouse flower was unchanged. Greenhouse product’s share of the total documented weight moved nationally expanded by 1% this week. The relative volume of outdoor flower contracted by the same proportion, while that for warehouse product was stable.
The U.S. Spot Index rose by 2% this week to settle at $1,459 per pound. This is the fifth time in the last six weeks that the national composite price has established a new annual peak. As we noted last week, at this time last year the U.S. Spot began a noticeable descent and eventually reached its annual trough in the second week of November. The national monthly average composite rate for November has typically been the lowest observed in any given year since Cannabis Benchmarks® began assessing prices in 2015.
In addition to the current behavior of national wholesale cannabis prices, several factors indicate that this year’s harvest season could see significant disruption in historical trends. Growing conditions in the Pacific Northwest states have not been favorable this year. As we expand upon in the commentary for Oregon, one veteran cultivator in that state expects the autumn harvest to have a “subtle” impact on prices. Apprehensions about Colorado’s largest grower losing a significant portion of its outdoor crop to an early freeze could amplify the existing upward trend in prices in that state. This despite the possibility that the loss represents a relatively small proportion of the state’s total production, as we discuss below, although uncertainty on that front will not be clarified until official data is available next year.
Meanwhile, Spot rates in the mid-sized markets of Michigan, Massachusetts, and Illinois continue to rise, providing positive pressure to the U.S. Spot not present in prior years in such a sustained manner.
The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers rose this week. Apart from Nevada, every state market in which adult-use sales are currently taking place saw an uptick in prices for such flower, although rates in Massachusetts’ adult-use sector were flat this week.
The national price for medical flower declined slightly this week, due virtually entirely to a downturn in that portion of California’s market.
November Forward closes up $100 to $1,425 per pound. The average reported forward deal size declined to 50 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 49%, 35%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 53 pounds, 39 pounds, and 61 pounds, respectively.
At $1,425 per pound, the November Forward represents a discount of 2.3% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,459 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.
Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:
- Price for Outdoor Flower Ascends to New Annual Peak this Week; Rates for Indoor Product Down 7.5% in Last Two Weeks
How Much of Colorado’s Statewide Production Was Actually Impacted by Recent Partial Crop Loss at Los Sueños Farms?
- Veteran Outdoor Grower in Southern Oregon Expects This Year’s Fall Harvest to Have a “Subtle” Influence on Wholesale Prices
- Official Sales Data for Q2 Indicates Available Supply Increased in the Period, but Not Enough to Prevent Price Rises
- Local Governments of Chicago and Aurora Approve Regulations for Adult-Use Retailers
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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC
25 October 2019. Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC. All rights reserved