November 15, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — November 15, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published November 15, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 0.8% to $1,464 per pound.


The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $31 to $1,684 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $988 to $2,379 per pound range. The average reported deal size decreased nominally to 2.2 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $3.23 and the simple average price was $3.71.


The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower increased by about 3% this week. The relative frequency of deals for greenhouse product decreased by the same proportion, while that for outdoor flower was unchanged. 


Outdoor product’s share of the total reported weight moved nationally contracted by over 3% this week. The relative volumes of warehouse and greenhouse flower grew by about 1% and 2%, respectively.

The U.S. Spot Index rose by 0.8% this week to settle at $1,464 per pound. This week’s national composite price once again represents a new year-to-date peak. In numerous previous years, the U.S. Spot Index frequently fell to its annual trough around early-mid November.   


On the state level, the Trailing 4-Week Average prices of California, Colorado, and Washington State are all still on the upswing as of this week, with Oregon the only one of the four major Western markets to see its trend line currently in decline. 


Still, increased supply from the fall harvest does appear to be having some impact on wholesale pricing. Rates for outdoor product fell this week in California after ascending consistently since mid-September. Prices for such flower in Colorado and Washington have stabilized in recent weeks at levels below peaks that were observed in late October and early November, respectively. Meanwhile, rates for outdoor flower in Oregon have been on the decline since the week ending October 11. As we discuss below, new data from state regulators shows that a very large amount of plant material was harvested in September, with Oregon growers likely attempting to pull their crops down because of the threat of mold from early autumn rains.


Apart from Oregon, though, declines in prices for outdoor flower have not been significant this harvest season. At the moment, demand from wholesale buyers attempting to bring in more inventory ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday may be contributing to upward pressure on rates.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers rose this week on increases in the adult-use sectors of the markets of California, Colorado, and Massachusetts, as well as an uptick in Oregon’s Spot. The national price for medical flower sank again this week on declines in that section of the market in California and Colorado, in addition to the medical-only systems of Arizona, Maine, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

December Forward up $20 to $1,470 per pound.


The average reported forward deal size was nominally unchanged at 50 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 50%, 36%, and 14% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 51 pounds, 43 pounds, and 61 pounds, respectively.


At $1,470 per pound, the December Forward represents a premium of 0.4% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,464 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

  • Volume-Weighted Average Price for Outdoor Flower Up 35% Year-Over-Year
  • Colorado

    Demand Slumped in September, But Downturn in Monthly Sales Did Not Impede Upward Trend in State Spot Index

  • Oregon

  • September Sales Down About 10% Month-Over-Month as Harvest Volume Nearly Doubles in Same Span
  • Washington

  • Retail Demand Reportedly Increasing Year-Over-Year, But Not to Same Degree as in Colorado or Oregon
  • Michigan

  • Adult-Use Sales Can Start in Just Over Two Weeks, as Officials Announce Inventory Transfers from Equivalent Medical to Adult-Use Licenses Will be Allowed Beginning December 1
  • Illinois

  • Retail Sales of Medical Cannabis in October Are Double Those from Same Month Last Year

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

15 November 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved