U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 2.1% to $1,616 per pound.
The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $12 to $1,824 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $1,047 to $2,601 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 2.4 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $3.56 and the simple average price was $4.02.
The relative frequency of transactions for greenhouse flower decreased by almost 2%. The relative frequency of deals for indoor product increased by the same proportion, while that for trades for outdoor flower was stable.
The relative volume of outdoor flower contracted by 3% this week. The relative volume of warehouse product expanded by the same proportion, while that for greenhouse flower was unchanged.
The U.S. Spot Index was generally on the rise last month, as well as being up relative to April. The national composite price averaged $1,572 per pound in May, an increase of 2.9% from the prior month. May 2021’s mean U.S. Spot price is also up 17.7% year-over-year, from $1,336 per pound in May 2020.
We noted in a recent report that retail sales in the 10 largest markets for which Cannabis Benchmarks assesses wholesale prices were up over 50% year-over-year in both March and April 2021. Early May sales data out of some states indicates that elevated demand is persisting. However, there are some signs that demand could be leveling off based on recently-released sales figures.
In Oregon, for example, retail revenues fell from April to May 2021, breaking with the trend of increasing monthly sales in that span in each year from 2017 through 2020. Meanwhile, in Illinois, although total monthly adult-use sales increased month-over-month in May, average daily retail revenues in that sector of the state’s market declined last month for the first time in over a year.
December 2021 Implied Forward initially assessed at $1,610 per pound.
The average reported forward deal size was 52.9 pounds. The proportions of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 52%, 35%, and 13% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 66 pounds, 42 pounds, and 29 pounds, respectively.
At $1,615 per pound, the July Implied Forward represents a discount of 0.1% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,616 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.
Monthly Sales Decrease from April to May for the First Time in Four Years, but Still Exceed $105 Million
Legal Sales Boomed in March, Rising to a New Record of Almost $97 Million
Report: Preliminary Tax Data Puts Combined Adult-Use and Medical Cannabis Sales at Roughly $120 Million in March
May’s Adult-Use Sales Set Another Record, but Average Daily Sales Declined for the First Time in Over a Year