July 22, 2022

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — July 22, 2022

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published July 22, 2022

The U.S. Cannabis Spot Index increased 1.0% to $1,069 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $9 to $1,345 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $589 to $2,101 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 2.4 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.36 and the simple average price was $2.97.

 

The relative transaction frequency of indoor product fell 2%, while that of deals for greenhouse product rose 1%. Outdoor transaction frequency was unchanged.

 

 

The relative volume of indoor product fell 2%, while that of greenhouse flower rose 1%. Outdoor flower’s relative volume rose 2%.

 

The Cannabis Benchmarks U.S. Spot Index inched up $11 this week to trade just under $1,070 per pound, even as legacy state spot prices mostly saw declines. California spot was off $10, Colorado spot was off $12, and Washington State spot shed $30 this week.

 

Among the newer states, the most expensive marijuana is still found in Illinois, where spot price was off $17 this week, trading just over the $3,500 handle. As long as the market remains an oligopoly, prices will remain near the top of the heap. Michigan prices remain under pressure, dropping just over $40 pound this week.

 

Massachusetts spot price fell through the $2,100 per pound level two weeks ago and remains in a steep downtrend. The market is massively oversold by any technical measure, but it is hard to see how the market rebounds without a base – prices trading in a tight range for several weeks in a row. The pressure on Massachusetts is only going to increase as more states in the Northeast open adult use sales over the next year or so.

 

The sand states were mostly lower, with New Mexico dropping $21 in the week, and Arizona sheddding $38 per pound. Nevada spot slid $12 while the Oklahoma spot built some decent support , but still slid $5 per pound this week. 

 

August 2022 Implied Forward assessed down $15 to $1,070 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 87 pounds. The proportions of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 48%, 34%, and 18% of forward arrangements, respectively.

 

The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 90 pounds, 94 pounds, and 66 pounds, respectively.

 

 

At $1,070 per pound, the August 2022 Implied Forward represents a premium of 0.1% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,069 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines from this week's Premium Report:

California

The Future is Now In Humboldt County – Interview

Colorado

May Adult Use Sales Drop 19.2% Year-on-Year

Michigan

June Cannabis Sales Surge, Up 25.8% Year-on-Year

Massachusetts

Adult Use Sales Inch up 1.4% in June Even as Prices Drop

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22 July 2022.  Copyright © 2022 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved