July 8, 2022

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — July 15, 2022

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published July 15, 2022

The U.S. Cannabis Spot Index increased 1.3% to $1,058 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $3 to $1,336 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $610 to $2,062 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 2.4 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.33 and the simple average price was $2.95.

 

The relative transaction frequency of indoor product rose 1%, while that of deals for greenhouse product was unchanged. Outdoor transaction frequency rose 1%.   

   

 

The relative volume of indoor product was unchanged, while that of greenhouse flower rose 2%. Outdoor flower’s relative volume fell 2%.

 

This week’s Premium Report contains analysis illustrating the effects of the opening of legal adult use cannabis markets on medical cannabis prices, patient populations, and sales volumes in selected states. The states in question – Colorado, Arizona, Michigan, and Illinois – were selected due to the availability of official data, in addition to the related fact that all hosted licensed and regulated medical cannabis markets prior to the start of legal adult use sales. (On the other hand, states such as California, Oregon, and Washington legalized medical cannabis prior to standing up adult use commerce, but the medical cannabis markets in those states were largely informal and untracked.)  

 

Due to significant differences in the maturity, size, and regulatory structures of the cannabis markets under discussion, it is not prudent to attempt to divine any single overarching effect of adult use sales on pre-existing medical cannabis commerce. Consequently, the data included in the Premium Report should be taken as individual case studies, rather than being representative of definitive trends that can be predictive for future scenarios. 

 

That said, by comparing the states under discussion with those with analogous features, the data contained in this report could be used to extrapolate potential courses that price, patient counts, and sales volumes may take in states with medical cannabis programs that have recently or will in the future open licensed adult use markets.

 

To learn more about the Cannabis Benchmarks Premium Report, click here.

 

August 2022 Implied Forward assessed down $15 to $1,085 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 89 pounds. The proportions of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 47%, 35%, and 18% of forward arrangements, respectively.

 

The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 91 pounds, 95 pounds, and 70 pounds, respectively.

 

 

At $1,085 per pound, the August 2022 Implied Forward represents a premium of 2.5% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,058 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines from this week's Premium Report:

Special Analysis

Adult Use Legalization’s Impact on Medical Markets in Colorado, Arizona, Michigan, Illinois

Montana

June Sales Up Slightly MoM, But Remain Down from Spring

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

15 July 2022.  Copyright © 2022 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved