U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published December 25, 2020
U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 1.5% to $1,506 per pound.
The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased $8 to $1,808 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $1,076 to $2,540 per pound range. The average reported deal size increased to 2.5 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $3.32 and the simple average price was $3.99.
The relative frequencies of trades for each grow type were essentially stable from last week.
The relative volume of indoor flower contracted by 2% this week. The relative volume of outdoor product expanded by the same proportion, while that for greenhouse flower was unchanged.
The U.S. Spot Index closed 2020 at $1,506 per pound, up 7.8% from the rate of $1,397 per pound observed at the outset of the year. However, the final two months of this year saw the national composite price decline after climbing steadily from late May through late October. The U.S. Spot averaged $1,524 per pound in December, off by 6% from November’s monthly mean of $1,621 per pound. National wholesale flower prices were pulled down by falling rates in some of the largest markets, such as California, Colorado, and Oregon, while upward trends in states like Nevada and Michigan subsided in the final month of the year.
For 2020 overall, the U.S. Spot averaged $1,471 per pound, up 15.6%, or almost $200, from 2019’s annual mean composite price of $1,273 per pound. 2020 is the second consecutive year in which the U.S. Spot’s annual average exceeded that from the year before, after national wholesale prices declined from 2016 through 2018.
Growth in existing markets – including California, Colorado, Oregon, and others – fueled in large part by expanded demand observed during the COVID-19 pandemic this year, pushed up wholesale prices in 2020. The establishment and growth of new and younger adult-use systems in Massachusetts, Michigan, and Illinois also injected more high-priced transactions for wholesale flower into our data than have been observed in prior years.
January 2021 Implied Forward down $40 to $1,500 per pound.
The average reported forward deal size was unchanged at 36.5 pounds. The proportions of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 46%, 36%, and 18% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 54 pounds, 21 pounds, and 23 pounds, respectively.
At $1,500 per pound, the January Implied Forward represents a discount of 0.4% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,506 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.
Headlines from this week's Premium Report:
Exclusive State Data Shows Volume of Flower, Trim, Fresh Plants Traded Wholesale in California from 2018 through Q3 2020
State Spot Index Closes the Year Down Almost $200 from Late October Peak
Wholesale Flower Prices Leveled Off in Final Two Months of the Year After Previously Climbing on Strong Summer Demand
Monthly Average Spot Index Jumps Over 8% in December with Adult-Use Sales Expected to Begin in March or April 2021
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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC
25 December 2020. Copyright © 2020 New Leaf Data Services, LLC. All rights reserved