April 16, 2021

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — April 16, 2021

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Week Ending April 16, 2021
1

*The provincial excise taxes vary. Cannabis Benchmarks estimates the population weighted average excise tax for Canada.

**CCSI is inclusive of the estimated Federal & Provincial cannabis excise taxes..

The CCSI was assessed at C$5.81 per gram this week, up 1.4% from last week’s C$5.73 per gram. This week’s price equates to US$2,101 per pound at the current exchange rate.

Include your weekly wholesale transactions in our price assessment by joining our Price Contributor Network

If you have not already done so, we invite you to join our Price Contributor Network, where market participants anonymously submit wholesale transactions to be included in our weekly price assessments. It takes two minutes to join and two minutes to submit each week, and comes with loads of extra data and market intelligence.

This week we examine whether legal cannabis sales in Canada have impacted alcohol sales. With the legalization of recreational cannabis in October 2018, alcohol companies feared they would see a reduction in sales, as consumers of legal age may opt to substitute cannabis for alcohol. (In Canada, one must be 18 or older to purchase cannabis; for alcohol, the legal age varies between 18 and 19, depending on the province.) The Canadian government releases monthly retail sales data for both cannabis and alcohol (beer, wine, and liquor), which provides us with a better understanding of whether cannabis has actually had an impact on alcohol sales.


Below is monthly data from the start of 2016 through early this year showing sales of both categories. The chart illustrates that alcohol sales have been growing steadily despite the introduction of legal recreational cannabis sales in late 2018. Since January 2019, monthly alcohol sales have grown by C$219M to C$2.22B. Meanwhile, monthly legal cannabis sales have grown by almost the same amount – C$227M – to reach C$282M. 

Source: Cannabis Benchmarks

A review of Canadian census data for the 19+ demographic shows that the growth in alcohol sales is consistent with the growth in this population segment. Overall to this point, it appears that legal cannabis sales growth has not yet impacted alcohol sales negatively. Still, it should be noted that the COVID-19 pandemic – and associated lockdowns, including restrictions on and / or closures of bars and restaurants – provided anomalous conditions that almost certainly boosted alcohol sales higher than they might have been had the pandemic not occurred. This can be seen in the spike in alcohol sales that occurred in March 2020, as lockdowns were put in place across Canada. We have in previous reports detailed our reasoning regarding how the pandemic also resulted in a boost to legal cannabis sales.  

 

Going forward, we do believe that at some point cannabis sales will impact alcohol sales. Consumers have a finite amount of money to spend in this category, and increased accessibility and education around cannabis may lead to larger proportional expenditures for the newly-legal intoxicant. Indeed, this is occurring already. As shown in the chart below, cannabis sales are starting to represent a larger portion of the total dollars spent towards alcohol and cannabis. Currently, cannabis’ share stands at 11.3% of the total spend of the combined categories. 

Source: Cannabis Benchmarks

Our current forecast for cannabis sales projects monthly spending to reach C$433M by the end of 2021. If we assume an average annual alcohol sales growth of 1.5% each year, then we can expect monthly alcohol sales to reach C$2.33B by end of the year. At those levels, cannabis sales would grow to represent 16% of the total spend on the two categories.

For more data and analytics like this, subscribe to the Cannabis Market Insights report developed in collaboration Nasdaq. This in-depth monthly report provides exclusive data and analysis on the legal cannabis industry, focusing largely on the Canadian cannabis market, as well as the cannabis equities market in the U.S.

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

16 April 2021 Copyright © 2021 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved.

April 9, 2021

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — April 9, 2021

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Week Ending April 9, 2021
1

*The provincial excise taxes vary. Cannabis Benchmarks estimates the population weighted average excise tax for Canada.

**CCSI is inclusive of the estimated Federal & Provincial cannabis excise taxes..

The CCSI was assessed at C$5.73 per gram this week, down 0.7% from last week’s C$5.77 per gram. This week’s price equates to US$2,067 per pound at the current exchange rate.

Include your weekly wholesale transactions in our price assessment by joining our Price Contributor Network

If you have not already done so, we invite you to join our Price Contributor Network, where market participants anonymously submit wholesale transactions to be included in our weekly price assessments. It takes two minutes to join and two minutes to submit each week, and comes with loads of extra data and market intelligence.

This week we examine household expenditure data issued by Statistics Canada on a quarterly basis. The data show some very interesting and positive trends for the legal cannabis sector. As seen in the chart below, Q3 2020 was the first quarter in which the estimated household expenditure for legal recreational cannabis exceeded that spent in the illicit market. That trend continued into Q4 2020.

With increased access through physical retail stores – particularly in Ontario – and online channels during the pandemic, more Canadians chose to purchase cannabis from regulated, legal sources. Also fueling that trend was a drop in prices for legal product as new supply from indoor and outdoor cultivation operations became available.

In Q4 2020, recreational cannabis expenditures grew 101% to C$918M, while illicit cannabis expenditures dropped by 20% to C$714M as compared to the same time frame in 2019. We also note that expenditures for medical-use cannabis dropped 6% to C$135M. Medical cannabis now makes up only 7.6% of total cannabis spending in Canada. Total expenditures on cannabis reached C$1.77B for the quarter, or C$19.2M per day.

Source: Cannabis Benchmarks, Health Canada

Next we examine cannabis purchasing in comparison to that for alcohol and tobacco. Major alcohol and tobacco companies have made significant investments in cannabis operations over the last few years, in part as a hedge to ensure they do not lose out on the latent demand for cannabis that is being captured gradually by legal businesses. The data released by Statistics Canada to date shows that alcohol and tobacco sales remain much stronger than cannabis sales, and that increased cannabis sales have not impacted those categories negatively. As seen in the chart below, both alcohol and tobacco’s shares of sales remained consistent between Q4 2019 and Q4 2020, at 51% and 37-38% respectively.

Source: Cannabis Benchmarks, Health Canada

For more data and analytics like this, subscribe to the Cannabis Market Insights report developed in collaboration Nasdaq. This in-depth monthly report provides exclusive data and analysis on the legal cannabis industry, focusing largely on the Canadian cannabis market, as well as the cannabis equities market in the U.S.

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

09 April 2021 Copyright © 2021 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved.

April 2, 2021

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — April 2, 2021

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Week Ending April 2, 2021
1

*The provincial excise taxes vary. Cannabis Benchmarks estimates the population weighted average excise tax for Canada.

**CCSI is inclusive of the estimated Federal & Provincial cannabis excise taxes..

The CCSI was assessed at C$5.77 per gram this week, down 0.8% from last week’s C$5.82 per gram. This week’s price equates to US$2,079 per pound at the current exchange rate.

Include your weekly wholesale transactions in our price assessment by joining our Price Contributor Network

If you have not already done so, we invite you to join our Price Contributor Network, where market participants anonymously submit wholesale transactions to be included in our weekly price assessments. It takes two minutes to join and two minutes to submit each week, and comes with loads of extra data and market intelligence.

This week, we once again turn our attention to supply and demand dynamics for cannabis 2.0 products in Canada’s legal cannabis market. The three main product categories that fall under the cannabis 2.0 umbrella are edibles, extracts, and topicals. The official Health Canada definitions of each are as follows:

 

Edibles: Products that are solid or liquid at a temperature of 22 ± 2°C and that are intended to be eaten or drunk the same way as foods such as chocolate, cookies, sodas, teas.

 

Extracts: Products made using extraction processing methods or by synthesizing phytocannabinoids and intended for inhalation or ingestion, including by absorption in the mouth or other routes of administration (e.g. vape pens, hash, tinctures, softgels, suppositories).

 

Topicals: Products that include cannabis as an ingredient and that are intended for use on external body surfaces such as skin, hair, or nails.

 

In today’s report, we provide an update on the supply and demand associated with edibles and extracts, which are the two larger categories. To date, Health Canada has compiled and published monthly data for production, consumption, and inventory of packaged units through November 2020.

 

Below are two groups of charts that show the monthly supply and demand for edibles and extracts from the introduction of cannabis 2.0 products in October 2019 through November 2020. 


Starting with edibles, we see the production of packaged units by licensed producers ramped up throughout 2020, with only a couple of months not showing gains. The production of packaged units increased at a greater rate than non-medical and medical sales, leading to excess production going into inventory at the federal, provincial, or retail level. Medical sales in this category are almost negligible.

 

Just as with dry flower cannabis in 2020, the mismatch between supply and demand is causing inventories to rise at massive rates. The current inventory of edible packaged units sits at 14M, which is approximately 8.7 months worth of supply at November’s consumption rate.

Source: Cannabis Benchmarks, Statistics Canada

The story for extracts is slightly different. Both production, as well as medical and non-medical sales, increased at relatively steadier rates throughout 2020. Still, production ramped up at a faster rate than domestic consumption, leading to growing inventories. The current inventory of packaged units of extracts has not grown as quickly as edibles, but still sits at 10.4M, which is approximately 7.0 months worth of supply at November’s consumption rate. The inventory of extracts grew by 2.8M packaged units or 36% in 2020, after a high build-up throughout 2019, as compared to edibles which grew 1,900% last year. 

Source: Cannabis Benchmarks, Statistics Canada

In analyzing the Health Canada data, we anticipated the monthly supply and demand figures to perfectly balance where each month:

 

Supply – Sales (consumption) = change in Federal/Provincial storage

This has not been the case. Each month we observed an excess amount, which we label as “unaccounted” inventory. In the charts above, we identify the “unaccounted” inventory bucket with a black vertical-lined pattern. In the charts below, we show the amounts of “unaccounted” inventory of extracts and edibles, both by month and cumulatively.

Source: Cannabis Benchmarks

The growing size of the “unaccounted” category is concerning, although it is not clear if these products are being consumed somewhere in the system, being destroyed, or being held in storage. If it is going to Federal or Provincial storage, there are now an additional 3.1M packaged units of edibles and 4.0M packaged units of extracts to account for, making the inventory overhang even larger.

For more data and analytics like this, subscribe to the Cannabis Market Insights report developed in collaboration Nasdaq. This in-depth monthly report provides exclusive data and analysis on the legal cannabis industry, focusing largely on the Canadian cannabis market, as well as the cannabis equities market in the U.S.

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

02 April 2021 Copyright © 2021 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved.

March 26, 2021

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — March 26, 2021

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Week Ending March 26, 2021
1 12.07.49 PM

*The provincial excise taxes vary. Cannabis Benchmarks estimates the population weighted average excise tax for Canada.

**CCSI is inclusive of the estimated Federal & Provincial cannabis excise taxes..

The CCSI was assessed at C$5.82 per gram this week, down 0.8% from last week’s C$5.86 per gram. This week’s price equates to US$2,101 per pound at the current exchange rate.

Include your weekly wholesale transactions in our price assessment by joining our Price Contributor Network

If you have not already done so, we invite you to join our Price Contributor Network, where market participants anonymously submit wholesale transactions to be included in our weekly price assessments. It takes two minutes to join and two minutes to submit each week, and comes with loads of extra data and market intelligence.

Last week, Statistics Canada released retail sales data for January 2021. While December 2020 sales were adjusted higher by C$1.3M to C$299.7M, January sales came in lower at C$282.8M. 

Throughout 2020, total average daily sales increased every month except for November 2020; hence the drop in sales in January is a bit unexpected, especially with the continued expansion in stores. 

 

The chart below shows average daily sales per month, with a drop of C$0.54M per day from December 2020 to January 2021. 

Source: Cannabis Benchmarks

We do not see January’s sales decline as the start of a sustained slowdown in cannabis usage, but rather a decrease in spending after the holiday season. A 2018 survey related to alcohol use from Morning Recovery reported, “The average American sees a 100% increase in their alcoholic drinking habits between Thanksgiving and New Year’s.” With cannabis now legal and accessible, we believe that consumer behavior in regard to alcohol was mimicked in the cannabis realm in December. Additionally, sales trends in state-legal cannabis markets in the U.S. have shown that a month-over-month decrease in purchasing in January of any given year has become almost a customary phenomenon.  

 

 

Looking at the month-on-month change in each province, we see that a drop in cannabis sales occurred nationwide without exception. The largest proportional declines were seen in Alberta and the Maritime provinces. 

Source: Cannabis Benchmarks

In Ontario, we did not see as much of a decrease as there was a massive expansion in store counts in the month of December, with the Ontario Government making the licensing process more simplified and streamlined. As we have consistently noted, there is a strong correlation between store counts and sales with better accessibility leading to increased sales.

For more data and analytics like this, subscribe to the Cannabis Market Insights report developed in collaboration Nasdaq. This in-depth monthly report provides exclusive data and analysis on the legal cannabis industry, focusing largely on the Canadian cannabis market, as well as the cannabis equities market in the U.S.

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

26 March 2021 Copyright © 2021 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved.

March 19, 2021

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — March 19, 2021

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Week Ending March 19, 2021
1

*The provincial excise taxes vary. Cannabis Benchmarks estimates the population weighted average excise tax for Canada.

**CCSI is inclusive of the estimated Federal & Provincial cannabis excise taxes..

The CCSI was assessed at C$5.86 per gram this week, up 0.3% from last week’s C$5.84 per gram. This week’s price equates to US$2,132 per pound at the current exchange rate.

Include your weekly wholesale transactions in our price assessment by joining our Price Contributor Network

If you have not already done so, we invite you to join our Price Contributor Network, where market participants anonymously submit wholesale transactions to be included in our weekly price assessments. It takes two minutes to join and two minutes to submit each week, and comes with loads of extra data and market intelligence.

This week we provide an update on the still-growing gap between supply and demand in Canada’s legal cannabis market. By combining our estimate on monthly demand with Statistics Canada’s production estimates, we can get a clearer understanding of the dynamics of the country’s regulated cannabis system.

Cannabis Benchmarks estimates that the total implied demand for legal cannabis in December 2020 was 30,318 kg, a 212% increase over the same month in 2019, as shown in the following table.

Source: Cannabis Benchmarks, Statistics Canada

Even though demand has grown at a rapid rate, December’s demand is still less than 18% of the 165,189 kg of unpackaged production reported by Statistics Canada for the month of November. The mismatch is creating a huge oversupply of both packaged (finished) and unpackaged (unfinished) products across the country. Statistics Canada’s most recent data for November 2020 shows unpackaged and packaged inventory ballooning to 1,165,725 kg. This represents 38 months worth of supply at current demand levels, and inventory is continuing to increase. The intent is that this inventory will ultimately be sold either as dried flower, converted into a cannabis derivative product, or exported, but there is a chance that the quality of the product degrades to a point where it is not sellable. 

Source: Cannabis Benchmarks, Statistics Canada

The issue of high production and growing inventory has been amplified by the seasonal supply increase coming to market from the outdoor harvest. The typical outdoor harvest for annual cash crops is in October and November, with cannabis following the same grow cycle. The Statistics Canada data confirms the noticeable influx of unpackaged cannabis during those months in 2019. The supply surge from sun-grown product was especially visible in 2020 as outdoor production capacity expanded last year. We anticipate a trend of expanding Q4 inventory increases going forward as more cultivators turn to outdoor cultivation.

Source: Cannabis Benchmarks, Statistics Canada

For more data and analytics like this, subscribe to the Cannabis Market Insights report developed in collaboration Nasdaq. This in-depth monthly report provides exclusive data and analysis on the legal cannabis industry, focusing largely on the Canadian cannabis market, as well as the cannabis equities market in the U.S.

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

19 March 2021 Copyright © 2021 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved.

1 2 3 25