The U.S. Cannabis Spot Index decreased 1.2% to $936 per pound.
In grams, the Spot price was $2.06.
This week brought another new historic low for the U.S. Spot Index, as the national wholesale flower price continued to slide with summer drawing to a close and the harvest approaching. This week’s U.S. spot wholesale flower price of $936 per pound is down 7.3% year-on-year, from $1,010 in the week ending September 16, 2022.
We have in recent reports noted that the current downturn can be chalked up largely to seasonal trends, with summer harvests coming to market as sales begin to slow in the wake of the high-demand summer season. While greenhouse and outdoor flower have been contributing to the overall downtrend in the U.S. Spot that began in June, both remain above their recent lows. This week’s greenhouse flower price of $670 per pound is up 10.6% from its recent trough of $606, observed in February. This week’s outdoor flower price of $452 per pound is up 17.1% from the December 2022 low of $386 for the grow type.
It’s also notable that outdoor flower’s price this week is comparable to a year ago. Outdoor product prices also experienced a short-lived rise in late summer 2022 before turning downward to bottom out near the end of the year. Similar performance this year is likely and it would not be unexpected to see price dip to similar depths reached in Q4 last year. Although, as we discussed last week, this year’s autumn / winter decline may be tempered due to pullbacks in production in major Western markets.
As of this month, national wholesale prices for indoor flower have also begun tracking closely with those observed last year, as illustrated in the chart below. This week’s U.S. spot indoor flower price of $1,283 per pound is up 2.1% from $1,257, recorded on September 16, 2022. Last year, wholesale prices for indoor flower reached their bottom in the weeks from late September to mid-October before ascending into mid-late November.
How indoor flower prices will react to the reduced supply from this year’s fall harvest remains to be seen. However, as every state incorporated into Cannabis Benchmarks’ national price assessment allows indoor production, the recent convergence of prices for 2022 and 2023 indicates stabilization and reduced volatility across the country, compared to the rollercoaster ride of the last two-plus years.
October 2023 Implied Forward unchanged at $935 per pound.
At $935 per pound, the October 2023 Implied Forward represents a discount of 0.1% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $936 per pound.
Challenges & Opportunities in the Garden State’s Recreational Market
Demand and Wholesale Prices Stabilizing After 2 Years of Declines
Wholesale Prices Rose in Spring & Summer, but Region Could See Fall Downturn
General Adult Use Licensing Round to Open in October