March 5, 2021

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — March 5, 2021

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published March 5, 2021

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 1.3% to $1,502 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $3 to $1,792 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $992 to $2,591 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 2.4 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $3.31 and the simple average price was $3.95.

 

The relative frequency of trades for greenhouse flower decreased by 2%. The relative frequencies of deals for indoor and outdoor flower each increased by 1%.  

 

 

The relative volume of outdoor flower expanded by 4% this week. The relative volumes of warehouse and greenhouse product each contracted by 2%.

In this week’s premium report, February sales figures out of Oregon and Illinois show that demand slowed last month, by significant proportions in both cases. While a decrease in demand from January to February is not necessarily surprising given historical sales trends observed across most state markets, the downturn in Illinois is notable as the state’s adult-use system is just over a year old. 

 

In other cases – as in Massachusetts, as well as in Canada, for example – monthly sales generally increased for about two years after adult-use sales began. However, this is likely due to the fact that retailers opened more gradually in Massachusetts and Canada, whereas in Illinois a significant proportion of the roughly 75 adult-use retailers currently operational were able to begin sales almost immediately or fairly shortly after when they were permitted to at the beginning of 2020. As we have covered previously, an additional 75 adult-use retail licenses were to be issued in Illinois last year, but have been delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic and litigation over the licensing process.

 

Full 2020 sales data out of Nevada also became available this week. Total retail revenues grew by 12% year-over-year, despite a 55% decrease in the number of visitors to Las Vegas. Nevada’s experience is one of the most dramatic examples observed anywhere in the country of how consumers significantly increased spending in legal cannabis markets last year in response to COVID-19.

September 2021 Implied Forward initially assessed at $1,650 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size increased to 47 pounds. The proportions of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 59%, 32%, and 10% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 61 pounds, 29 pounds, and 25 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,540 per pound, the April Implied Forward represents a premium of 2.5% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,502 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines from this week's Premium Report:

Colorado

Denver Officials Introduce Bills that Include Measures to Allow Cannabis Delivery, License Additional Businesses Under Social Equity Program

Oregon

February Sales Down Almost 12% Compared to January; Annual Growth Rate Slowing as State Budget Officials Predict Demand Will “Cool” this Year

Nevada

2020 Sales Data Shows Retail Revenue Grew 12% YoY Despite 55% Decline in Las Vegas Tourism Due to COVID-19

Illinois

Combined Adult-Use and Medical Cannabis Sales Declined 9% MoM in February to About $110 Million

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

5 March 2021.  Copyright © 2021 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved