U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published March 13, 2020
U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 1.1% to $1,404 per pound.
The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $45 to $1,617 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $866 to $2,369 per pound range. The average reported deal size increased to 2.1 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $3.10 and the simple average price was $3.57.
Transaction stats on the national level, shown in the chart below, were largely stable from last week.
As we approach the end of the first quarter of 2020, relatively more indoor flower is being traded compared to the start of this year. In the opening week of 2020, each grow type constituted roughly a third of the total observed volume traded in the U.S. Now, however, indoor flower’s share of the total documented weight moved is almost half. Despite higher-priced warehouse product making up a significantly larger portion of the total, this week’s U.S. Spot is up only $7 from the first week of this year.
The U.S. Spot Index rose by 1.1% this week to settle at $1,404 per pound. As the COVID-19 – or coronavirus – pandemic dominates national and international headlines, it is not yet clear how the situation will impact the U.S. cannabis industry. However, numerous states with large legal cannabis markets are being affected. At this point, information from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) shows that Washington State and California are among the top three states in terms of reported cases of the virus (along with New York). As of March 12, Colorado officials had counted 49 presumptive cases of COVID-19 in the state.
Recommended measures such as “social distancing” could lead to lower sales for a period, depending on how long the situation persists. On the other hand, consumers and patients in hard-hit areas may look to stock up on product ahead of isolating themselves, possibly providing a short-term increase in demand. On the production side, greater spread of the virus in areas with significant cultivation capacity could interrupt or constrict supply if employees are compelled to stay home or work only intermittently.
In more quotidian developments, Boston saw its first licensed adult-use retailer open recently, which should result in a boost to statewide revenue figures as there are currently only about three dozen permitted recreational storefronts in Massachusetts. Meanwhile, regulatory changes in Michigan could tighten supply and result in less flexibility in transferring product from the medical to the adult-use sector in some cases.
March Forward unchanged at $1,435 per pound.
The average reported forward deal size was 38 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 48%, 36%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 43 pounds, 31 pounds, and 37 pounds, respectively.
At $1,435 per pound, the April Forward represents a premium of 2.2% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,404 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.
Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:
Q4 2019 Tax Collections Suggest Flattening Retail Sales, While Amount of Flower Entering Commercial Market Grew Almost 20% from Prior Quarter
January 2020 Sales Up 12% YoY, Maintaining Annual Growth Rate Observed for 2019
Officials Apply New Parameters to Transfers from Medical Dispensaries to Adult-Use Retailers, Allow Growers to Transfer Plants from Medical to Adult-Use Operations
Public Hearing on Proposed Rules for Enhanced Quality Control Testing Delayed, Comment Period Extended Due to Coronavirus Concerns
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13 March 2020. Copyright © 2020 New Leaf Data Services, LLC. All rights reserved