July 12, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — July 12, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published July 12, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 1.2% to $1,293 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased $13 to $1,442 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $640 to $2,245 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 2.2 pounds from 2.5 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.85 and the simple average price was $3.18.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower decreased by more than 2% week-over-week. The relative frequency of transactions involving greenhouse product increased by the same proportion, while that for outdoor flower was unchanged. Greenhouse product’s share of the total documented weight moved nationally expanded by over 8% this week. The relative volumes of warehouse and outdoor flower contracted by about 6% and 3% respectively, relative to the week prior. 

The U.S. Spot Index rose by 1.2% this week to settle at $1,293 per pound, establishing a new year-to-date high after a small decline last week. The upward trend in the national composite price is being observed even in the face of injections of supply from summer light-deprivation crops, particularly in California. However, we have in the past observed wholesale price rises at the outset of light-dep or outdoor harvests, as fresher plant material is more appealing and can garner higher rates than that which was cut down months ago, or even the year prior. Market participants are also reporting lower demand from retailers in the wake of July 4, due to shops stocking up on extra inventory ahead of time. Yet rates in the four major Western markets all ticked upward this week, with Nevada the only large market to see a decline in its Spot.  

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers declined this week as downturns in California and Nevada overwhelmed increases in Colorado, Oregon, and Washington State. Prices for medical flower increased sharply this week thanks to a notable jump in rates for such product in California. Additionally, apart from Maine and Vermont, every medical-only market covered in our reporting saw an increase in its Spot Index this week.

August Forward up $50 to $1,200 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 48.5 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 56%, 29%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 42 pounds, 53 pounds, and 63 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,200 per pound, the August Forward represents a discount of 7.2% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,293 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

  • Changes to Provisional Licensing Should Expand and Stabilize Number of Businesses Able to Participate in the State’s Licensed System
  •  
  • Colorado

    Volume-Weighted Rates for Indoor Flower Showed Notable Stability through First Half of 2019

  • Oregon

  • Behavior of State Spot Index in Q2 Shows that Wholesale Prices in Oregon Remain Some of Most Volatile in the U.S.
  •  
  • Washington

  • Average Price for Outdoor Flower in Q2 Down Compared to Prior Quarter, Bucking Trends Observed in Other West Coast Markets
  •  
  • Illinois

  • Demand Continues to Boom in State’s Medical Market; YTD Dispensary Sales for H1 2019 up 70% Compared to H1 2018, Retail Revenues for June Up 93% YOY

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12 July 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved