January 3, 2020

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — January 3, 2020

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published January 3, 2020

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 1.0% to $1,397 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased $12 to $1,607 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $963 to $2,251 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 2.1 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $3.08 and the simple average price was $3.54.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower decreased by 2% this week. The relative frequency of deals for greenhouse product increased by the same proportion, while that for transactions involving outdoor flower was unchanged. 

 

 

Greenhouse flower’s share of the total reported weight moved nationally expanded by 2% this week. The relative volumes of warehouse and outdoor product each contracted by 1%.

The U.S. Spot Index declined by 1% this week to open 2020 at $1,397 per pound. Although down marginally week-on-week, this week’s national composite price is up by about 20% compared to a year ago. 

 

In 2019, the U.S. Spot was generally on the downswing in the opening quarter of the year, sliding to reach its annual low in the first week of April. However, several factors not present in 2019 will likely apply upward pressure to wholesale prices in Q1 2020. The opening of adult-use sales in Illinois, as well as the continued expansion of that sector of the market in Michigan, has generated significant new demand not present a year ago, while cultivators in both states still need time to ramp up production to full capacity. Additionally, wholesale prices in Washington State have continued to climb to begin 2020 with reports that 2019’s harvest was smaller than in prior years. 

 

Other sources of upward price pressure observed last year may subside in 2020. Whether the significant growth in sales documented in California, Colorado, and Oregon in 2019 will continue into this year is an open question. Furthermore, 2019’s autumn crops could drive down prices in the two aforementioned West Coast markets through at least the opening quarter of this year, as they did last year.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers increased this week. Rises in Oregon, Washington, and Nevada – as well as the addition of an average price of $3,057 per pound for adult-use product in Illinois – outweighed small decreases in California and Colorado’s recreational sectors. The national price for medical flower dropped this week on decreases in that section of the market in California, Colorado, and Illinois, in addition to falling rates in the medical-only systems of Arizona, Connecticut, Maine, and Washington, D.C.

July Forward initially assessed at $1,455 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was nominally unchanged at 48 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 46%, 36%, and 18% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were nominally unchanged at 50 pounds, 43 pounds, and 50 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,450 per pound, the February Forward represents a premium of 3.8% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,397 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

California

Flower and Trim Harvested On or After January 1st Now Subject to Required Testing for Heavy Metals

 

Oregon

State Spot Index Up About 90% Compared to Opening Week of 2019

 

Michigan

Medical Cannabis Sales Up Over 30% in Q3 2019, But Declines in Flower Sales Volume in August & September Indicate Tight Supply

 

Illinois

Retail Revenue on First Day of Adult-Use Sales Equivalent to 12% of All Medical Cannabis Sales Made in November

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

3 January 2020.  Copyright © 2020 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved