U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 0.2% to $1,489 per pound.
The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $13 to $1,762 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $998 to $2,526 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 2.4 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $3.28 and the simple average price was $3.88.
The relative frequency of trades for greenhouse flower decreased by 1%. The relative frequency of deals for outdoor product increased by the same proportion, while that for indoor flower was unchanged.
The relative volume of outdoor flower expanded by almost 3% this week. The relative volume of greenhouse product contracted by the same proportion, while that for indoor flower was unchanged.
The U.S. Spot Index averaged $1,495 per pound in January to open 2021, down by 1.9% from December 2020’s mean composite price of $1,524 per pound. The overall decline has been driven by downturns in California, Colorado, and Oregon, with increased trading volumes of outdoor product from the fall harvest largely behind the downward trend that commenced in early November. However, national wholesale prices have stabilized in recent weeks, coinciding with reports of lower trading volumes for outdoor-grown flower.
Even with the U.S. Spot trending downward over the last three months, it remains elevated compared to a year ago. January 2021’s monthly mean price represents a year-over-year increase of 5.7%, from $1,415 per pound in January 2020. As we documented over the course of last year, a surge in demand during the COVID-19 pandemic boosted sales to record levels in many states, straining supplies in both new and more mature markets.
February Implied Forward closes unchanged at $1,500 per pound.
The average reported forward deal size was unchanged at 39.6 pounds. The proportions of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 53%, 34%, and 12% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 55 pounds, 21 pounds, and 26 pounds, respectively.
At $1,500 per pound, the February Implied Forward represents a premium of 0.8% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,489 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.
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