U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published February 8, 2019
U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 1.4% at $1,142 per pound.
The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by $8 to $1,248 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $429 to $2,067 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 3.2 pounds this week from 3.3 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.52, and the simple average price was $2.75.
The relative frequency of trades for outdoor flower increased week-over-week, by almost 2%, while transactions involving indoor and greenhouse product each saw an almost 1% decline in this metric. Similar movement was observed in regard to the relative volumes of the three grow types: That for outdoor flower expanded by 2% compared to last week, while warehouse and greenhouse product’s shares of the total reported weight moved each contracted by 1%.
The U.S. Spot Index slipped by 1.4% this week to settle at $1,142 per pound. Although several mid-sized markets saw notable increases in their Spot Indices this week – including Massachusetts and Illinois – that upward price pressure was overwhelmed by declines in the composite rates of California, Colorado, and Oregon, with the West Coast markets just mentioned each seeing decreases of over $30 compared to last week. As of this week, the tug-of-war between the upward-trending national price for warehouse flower and the slowly-sliding U.S. averages for greenhouse and outdoor product saw the latter gain the upper hand. Elevated rates in California have for the time being buoyed the national price for indoor flower against sliding prices for such product in Colorado and Oregon this year.
The Trailing 4-Week Average of the U.S. Spot Index persisted this week in the very gradual downward slide that has so far marked 2019, though its negative momentum accelerated somewhat this week. At the moment, the national average is being pulled down by declines in the trend lines of the Spot Indices of California and Oregon. Nevada’s Trailing 4-Week Average price also applying negative pressure, even as sales in the Silver State appear to be growing, at least as of late last year, as we discuss below. The trend line of Michigan’s Spot Index continued to rise this week, as more product recalls likely have buyers looking for inventory that they can be assured will not run afoul of regulators, despite being technically allowed to sell untested product.
March 2019 Forward unchanged at $1,100 per pound.
The average reported forward deal size decreased to 53.8 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 56%, 28%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 60 pounds, 48 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.
At $1,100 per pound, the March Forward represents a discount of 3.7% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,142 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.
Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:
BCC Data Provides Glimpse of Volume of Flower Traded in California’s Licensed System from July 2018 through January 2019
State Spot Index Sees Small Week-Over-Week Decline, First Downward Movement Since Early November 2018
- OLCC’s Supply & Demand Report Contains Insights on Inventory Management by License Type
- LCB Reminds Producer / Processors that Volume Discounting in Deals with Retailers is Prohibited
- Cumulative and Adult-Use Sales Both Reach New Record Highs for State’s Market in November 2018, but Stable Spot Index Indicates Sufficient Supply
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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC
8 February 2019. Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC. All rights reserved