The U.S. Cannabis Spot Index decreased 0.3% to $1,286 per pound.
The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased $3 to $1,632 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $822 to $2,441 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 2.5 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.84 and the simple average price was $3.60.
The relative frequency of transactions for indoor product rose 1%, that for deals for greenhouse product fell 1% and the relative frequency of outdoor transactions was unchanged this week.
The Cannabis Benchmarks U.S. Spot Index fell just $3.28 this week, to $1,286 per pound. The 20-week average change in the U.S. Spot is -$13.90 and this week’s departure from the average weekly change is significant. The Oregon Spot 20-week average move is -$16.70; this week Oregon Spot fell just $3.49 per pound. Likewise, in California, the 20-week average weekly change in spot prices is -$24.15; this week the state Spot Index is down $15.68. The average price change in Colorado for the past 20 weeks has been -$7.47; again, losses narrowed to just $4.64 per pound. Washington spot prices have been in a downtrend as well with the 20-week average weekly change at -$7.00. However, this week the Spot downtrend in Washington intensified, with price down $49.17 per pound.
As legacy state weekly average price changes narrow for the most part, the market may be undergoing a post harvest “clearing,” where growers sell into a falling market, but weekly price changes narrow. That is, as the market clears, prices start to stabilize; first by narrowing losses and then by building a base price by repeated sales of crops within a tight range. State spot markets will not “clear” all at once, as illustrated by Washington’s sharp negative departure from the average weekly change. Still, the 20-week average spot price change may be an early signal wholesale flower prices are set to stabilize, at least in the near term.
June 2022 Implied Forward initially assessed at $1,410 per pound.
The average reported forward deal size declined to 67 pounds. The proportions of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 38%, 47%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively.
The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 100 pounds, 52 pounds, and 35 pounds, respectively.
At $1,350 per pound, the January 2022 Implied Forward represents a premium of 4.9% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,286 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.
California
Q3 Sales and Tax Revenues Dip
Oregon
Wholesale Prices to Rise in Spring 2022, Grower Say
New York
Report: State All-in on Cannabis; Few Towns Choosing to Ban Adult Use Businesses So Far