U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published December 27, 2019
U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 1.8% to $1,411 per pound.
The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased $26 to $1,619 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $969 to $2,269 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 2.1 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $3.11 and the simple average price was $3.57.
The relative frequency of trades for outdoor flower increased by1% this week. The relative frequency of deals for greenhouse product decreased by the same proportion, while that for transactions involving indoor flower was unchanged.
Outdoor flower’s share of the total reported weight moved nationally expanded by 2% this week. The relative volume of warehouse product contracted by the same proportion, while that for greenhouse flower was stable.
The U.S. Spot Index declined by 1.8% this week to close 2019 at $1,411 per pound. Much of this year was marked in general by an upward trend in the national composite price. However, the U.S. Spot opened the year at $1,165 per pound and slid to its annual low of $1,066 per pound in the first week of April, after what available data shows was a strong 2018 outdoor harvest on the West Coast.
However, record-setting demand in the country’s major adult-use markets this year, combined with reports that Oregon’s 2018 crop was of lower quality, pushed the U.S. Spot upward through the spring, summer, and into the autumn, when it peaked at $1,464 per pound in mid-November, the latest that such a milestone has been observed in the history of Cannabis Benchmarks price assessments, which began in 2015.
Positive momentum in wholesale prices was moderated and reversed to close the year as the autumn harvest reached market, though the scope and quality of this year’s crop has yet to become fully apparent. Also notable in 2019 was the fracas around vaping-related illnesses and deaths, which resulted in regulatory action in several states to ban some or all vape cartridges. However, the official responses to the vape crisis did not appear to result in significant shifts in demand for flower, and in some cases sales of available extracted products actually increased in the face of partial bans.
The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers declined this week. Decreases in the adult-use sectors of California, Colorado, and Massachusetts, as well as in Alaska, outweighed increases in Oregon, Washington, and Nevada. The national price for medical flower also slid this week on decreases in that section of the market in California, Colorado, and Massachusetts, in addition to falling rates in the medical-only systems of Arizona, Illinois, Maine, and New Mexico, among others.
January 2020 Forward closes down $25 at $1,450 per pound.
The average reported forward deal size was nominally unchanged at 48 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 46%, 36%, and 18% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 50 pounds, 43 pounds, and 50 pounds, respectively.
At $1,450 per pound, the January 2020 Forward represents a premium of 2.7% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,411 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.
Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:
Legislative Analyst’s Office Recommends Eliminating Cultivation Tax, But Bill to that Effect Did Not Advance Earlier this Year
Denver Minimum Wage Increase May Result in Small Increase in Labor Costs for Some Businesses in 2020
Officials Begin Rulemaking to Allow Smallest Producers to Expand Production Capacity
November Sales Volume Again Sets New Record, Up by 33% YoY
Adult-Use Sales Reach Almost $46 Million in November, a Record High for the Young Recreational Market
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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC
27 December 2019. Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC. All rights reserved