CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT -- PUBLISHED MARCH 2, 2018
U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up nominally to $1,296 per pound.
The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by $22 to $1,389 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $681 to $2,098 per pound range. The average deal size decreased 11% to 8 pounds from 9 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.86, and the simple average price was $3.06.
National Transaction Stats were largely steady week-over-week, with only slight changes. The relative frequency of trades for indoor product increased by less than 1% compared to last week, resulting in barely discernible downturns in this metric for the sun-fueled grow types. Similarly, both warehouse and greenhouse flower saw their shares of the total reported weight moved nationwide expand by less than 1% week-over-week, resulting in a roughly 1% decrease in the relative volume of outdoor-grown product.
The U.S. Spot Index ticked upward modestly this week. A slight increase in the volume-weighted average rate for indoor product overwhelmed a larger decline in the price for greenhouse flower, due to the greater relative volume of the former. Average deal sizes were down across the board, with outdoor product seeing another notable contraction. The average transaction volume for such flower is just over half that documented two weeks ago.
Despite declines in rates for product designated for sale to the general adult public across all four major Western markets, greater volumes of such flower were reported from California this week. Higher prices in the Golden State’s adult-use sector relative to the other three major markets and the increase in observed volume traded, worked to push up the national recreational rate.
September Forward assessed at $1,585 per pound.
The average forward deal was 58 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 47%, 31%, and 22% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 67 pounds, 65 pounds, and 28 pounds, respectively.
The September Forward has initially been assessed at $1,585 per pound, flat from August. How a variety of markets - large and small - will develop in the latter half of the year is, at this time, still largely uncertain to market participants. For context, the change in prices from August to September the last two years has ranged from -2.3% to +1.9%. In 2016, the average September price of $1,644 was a decline of $38 from the August price of $1,682. In 2017, the average September price of $1,612 was an increase of $30 from the August price of $1,582.
At $1,450 per pound, the April Forward represents a premium of 11.9% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,296. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.
Sample headlines from this week's Premium Report:
2 March 2018. Copyright © 2017 New Leaf Data Services, LLC. All rights reserved