CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT -- PUBLISHED FEBRUARY 2, 2018
U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 3.3% to $1,279 per pound.
The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $33 to $1,393 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $715 to $2,071 per pound range. The average deal size decreased 10.9% to 9.6 pounds from 10.8 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.82, and the simple average price was $3.07.
Warehouse flower’s share of the total observed weight moved held steady relative to last week. The relative volume of greenhouse product increase by 3% week-over-week, resulting in a corresponding decline in that metric for outdoor flower. At this time last year, relative volumes documented for indoor, greenhouse, and outdoor product were remarkably similar, at 43%, 33%, and 24%, respectively. The relative frequency of transactions for warehouse flower increased by 2% compared to last week.
The U.S. Spot Index experienced positive movement for the first time since the opening week of the year, rising to exceed the $1,275 per pound threshold. Average deal sizes continued to contract for the most part this week, with the average composite transaction volume declining by in excess of 10% for the second straight week. Average deal sizes for indoor and outdoor flower have declined from about 10 and 26 pounds, respectively, in the last two weeks.
The national rate for flower traded in adult-use markets continued to decline, while that for product in medical markets saw a bump this week. As we discuss in detail in the Spot Index commentary for Oregon, that state’s medical program has been diminished greatly as the adult-use market has grown. Consequently, observed trades in the medical sector of Oregon’s market have been few and far between recently, significantly decreasing their impact on national-level rates for such flower relative to this time a year ago.
August 2018 Forward assessed at $1,610 per pound.
The average forward deal decreased 1 pound to 54 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 50%, 26%, and 24% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 62 pounds, 57 pounds, and 33 pounds, respectively.
The August Forward is assessed at $1,610 per pound, representing an expectation for the U.S. Spot Index to decline 1.5% from July to August. For context, the U.S. Spot Index averaged $1,614 per pound in July 2017, declining 2% to $1,582 in August 2017. At $1,425 per pound, the March Forward represents a premium of 11.4% relative to the current U.S. Spot Index of $1,279 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.
Sample headlines from this week's Premium Report:
2 February 2018. Copyright © 2017 New Leaf Data Services, LLC. All rights reserved