December 13, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — December 13, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published December 13, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 0.3% to $1,442 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased $12 to $1,659 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $988 to $2,329 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 2.1 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $3.18 and the simple average price was $3.66.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower decreased by almost 3% this week. The relative frequencies of deals for greenhouse and outdoor product increased by about 1% and 2%, respectively. 

 

 

Warehouse flower’s share of the total reported weight moved nationally contracted by 3% this week. The relative volumes of greenhouse and outdoor product expanded by 1% and 2%, respectively.

The U.S. Spot Index declined by 0.3% this week to settle at $1,442 per pound. The national price for outdoor flower continued its Q4 climb, with this week’s rate up by 39.2% from the price of $842 per pound, documented in the opening week of the quarter. 

 

National rates for the other grow types have also been on the rise in Q4, but not nearly to the same degree. From the beginning of the current period through this week, the U.S. volume-weighted prices for indoor and greenhouse product have climbed by 4.8% and 6.4%, respectively. The U.S. Spot Index has been more stable, with this week’s up by only 1.3% from the first week of Q4. 

 

While the fall harvest has not resulted in the Q4 downturn to which cannabis market observers have become accustomed, the chart above shows that previously persistent positive price trends in California, Colorado, and Washington have flattened in recent weeks, while Oregon’s Trailing 4-Week Average slid downward from late October to late November, then leveled off. 

 

As we expand upon below, new data from Colorado and Nevada shows slumping demand in October and September, respectively. Meanwhile, reports of strong early adult-use sales in Michigan must be couched in the context that they are taking place at only a small number of stores. In general, demand will likely pick up in most markets in the coming weeks, around the end-of-year holidays.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers was flat this week. Small downturns in California’s and Colorado’s adult-use sectors were counterbalanced by upticks in Oregon and Washington State. 

 

The national price for medical flower declined this week on decreases in that section of the market in Colorado, Massachusetts, and Michigan, in addition to falling rates in the medical-only systems of Arizona, Connecticut, Washington, D.C., Illinois, Maine, New Mexico, and Vermont.

January 2020 Forward unchanged at $1,475 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 49 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 47%, 36%, and 17% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 50 pounds, 43 pounds, and 52 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,475 per pound, the January 2020 Forward represents a premium of 2.3% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,442 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

California

Q3 Tax Collections Show Expanding Retail Demand; Cultivation Tax Receipts Shrink on Significantly Lower Volumes of Trim Moved by Growers

 

Colorado

October Sales Data Shows Demand Shrank for Second Straight Month, But YTD Retail Revenue Up Almost 14%

 

Oregon

Outdoor Flower’s Share of Observed Volume Traded Shrank to Lowest Levels of the Year in October and November, But Has Increased in Recent Weeks

 

Washington

State Spot Index Rises to New YTD Peak

 

Nevada

Total Retail Sales in September Down 7% From August’s Record Revenues

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

13 December 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

December 6, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — December 6, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published December 6, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 1.3% to $1,446 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $13 to $1,671 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $1001 to $2,341 per pound range. The average reported deal size decreased to 2.1 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $3.19 and the simple average price was $3.68.

 

The relative frequency of trades for greenhouse flower decreased by 2% this week. The relative frequency of deals for indoor and outdoor product each increased by 1%.

 

 

Warehouse flower’s share of the total reported weight moved nationally expanded by 1% this week. The relative volume of greenhouse product contracted by the same proportion, while that for outdoor flower was unchanged.

The U.S. Spot Index rose by 1.3% this week to settle at $1,446 per pound. In the wake of the fall harvest, rates for outdoor flower remained strong, with this week’s national volume-weighted average price for such product once again representing a new annual peak for the grow type. National rates for the other product types settled just under their current year-to-date highs. 

 

Although an uptick in the price of sun-grown flower in the wake of the harvest is not unheard of, the magnitude of the price rise observed this year is notable, especially as official data from Oregon and reports from the other West Coast states tell of a large fall crop. This week’s price for outdoor flower is up by 37.1% from two months ago, when it settled at $842 per pound in the week ending October 4. In the same span in 2018, weekly rates for outdoor product rose by 2.7%, from $706 to $725 per pound, while dipping below the $700 per pound threshold in the latter three weeks of October 2018. 

 

The post-harvest rate increase is largely attributable to strong, and in some cases record-setting demand in the four largest legal cannabis markets. Despite the rising prices for outdoor product, however, rates for such flower are still 12.9% and 36.7% lower than those for greenhouse and indoor product, respectively. Elevated prices for warehouse and greenhouse flower are likely motivating buyers to seek out outdoor product, increasing demand for the most inexpensive grow type.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers rose this week on increases in the adult-use sectors of the markets of California and Colorado, as well as upticks in Oregon and Alaska. 

 

The national price for medical flower also ascended this week on increases in that section of the market in California, Colorado, and Michigan, in addition to rising rates in the medical-only systems of Connecticut, Washington, D.C., and Rhode Island.

June 2020 Forward assessed at $1,455 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 49 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 48%, 35%, and 17% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 50 pounds, 44 pounds, and 52 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,475 per pound, the January 2020 Forward represents a premium of 2.0% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,446 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

California

Overall Rise in State Spot Index in Current Quarter Driven Largely by Increasing Prices for Greenhouse and Outdoor Flower

 

Colorado

Licensed Cannabis Retailers Will Be Allowed to Sell Some Hemp-Derived CBD Products Come July 2020

 

Oregon

Monthly Average Spot Index and Prices for All Grow Types Decline from October to November, But QTD Rates for Q4 Still Up Significantly from Prior Quarter

 

Washington

Officials Reportedly Intend to Allow Smallest Producers to Expand Cultivation Capacity

 

Michigan

State Spot Index Jumps Almost $150 After Commencement of Adult-Use Sales

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

6 December 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

November 27, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — November 29, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published November 29, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 1.9% to $1,428 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased $3 to $1,658 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $989 to $2,327 per pound range. The average reported deal size increased to 2.3 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $3.15 and the simple average price was $3.66.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower decreased by 3% this week. The relative frequency of deals for outdoor product increased by the same proportion, while that for greenhouse flower was unchanged.

 

 

Outdoor product’s share of the total reported weight moved nationally expanded by 4% this week. The relative volumes of warehouse and greenhouse flower contracted by 3% and 1%, respectively.

The U.S. Spot Index declined by 1.9% this week to settle at $1,428 per pound. Remarkably, this is the first time since mid-March that the national composite price has fallen in two consecutive weeks. Spot rates fell in all three West Coast states, as well as in Nevada, with Colorado the only major market to see an uptick in its overall wholesale price this week. 

 

As we have called attention to in recent reports, the Thanksgiving holiday has become a time when it is now customary for retailers in states with legal adult-use cannabis to run sales and promotions, particularly on the Wednesday prior and the Friday subsequent to the holiday itself. Increased demand generated by retailers preparing for the holiday, on top of the relatively strong demand from consumers that has been recorded in many of the country’s largest legal cannabis markets this summer and autumn, may have contributed to the lack of a post-harvest erosion in wholesale prices this month.  

 

In previous years, the U.S. Spot Index has consistently fallen to its lowest point in November. This year, however, November’s monthly average Spot settled at $1,452 per pound, the highest observed so far in 2019 and up by 1.4% from October’s monthly mean of $1,432 per pound. This month’s average U.S. Spot price is also up by 35.1% year-over-year, compared to the rate of $1,075 per pound observed in November 2018.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers declined again this week on decreases in the adult-use sectors of the markets of California and Massachusetts, as well as downturns in Oregon, Washington State, and Nevada. 

 

The national price for medical flower also sank this week on declines in that section of the market in California and Colorado, in addition to decreasing prices in the medical-only systems of Arizona, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Rhode Island.

December Forward closes unchanged at $1,470 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 51 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 50%, 34%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 52 pounds, 43 pounds, and 59 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,470 per pound, the December Forward represents a premium of 2.9% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,428 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • Oregon

  • Officials Ban Vitamin E Acetate from Vape Products for Inhalation, But Flavored Vapes Allowed to be Sold Again Due to Judicial Ruling
  •  
  • Michigan

  • Regulators Require All Vape Products to be Tested for Vitamin E Acetate Before They Can be Sold, But No Labs Currently Qualified to Perform Such Screenings
  • Adult-Use Market to Open Sunday, But Only a Few Storefronts Licensed to Sell to Consumers
  •  
  • Massachusetts

  • Adult-Use Sales Slip for Second Straight Month in October as Full Ban on Vape Products Persists

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

29 November 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

November 22, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — November 22, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published November 22, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 0.5% to $1,456 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased $23 to $1,661 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $988 to $2,334 per pound range. The average reported deal size decreased to 2.1 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $3.21 and the simple average price was $3.66.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower decreased by 2% this week. The relative frequency of deals for outdoor product increased by the same proportion, while that for greenhouse flower was unchanged. 

 

Outdoor product’s share of the total reported weight moved nationally expanded by over 3% this week. The relative volume of warehouse flower contracted by the same proportion, while that for greenhouse product was unchanged.

The U.S. Spot Index declined by 0.5% this week to settle at $1,456 per pound. The decrease in the national composite price resulted in the U.S. Spot’s Trailing 4-Week Average turning downward for the first time since late August. Despite the harvest season, the trend lines of the Spot prices of three of the four largest markets remain on the rise, however, with Oregon’s the exception.

 

New data from Oregon officials reveals that the overall volume of this year’s fall crop exceeded those cut down in 2017 and 2018 by about 20%, although its quality and saleability remains to be determined as poor weather reportedly plagued many growers and resulted in mold issues. Still, the significant uptick in harvest volume in Oregon even in the face of less-than-ideal conditions in the state in late September and October suggests that large crops were also realized in California and Washington, where harvest-season weather was reportedly better in the areas of those states where outdoor cultivation is concentrated. 

 

Nevertheless, prices for outdoor flower were on the rise in all four of the major Western states this week, although the increase in the relative volume of such product on the national level was largely responsible for the small downturn in the U.S. Spot.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers declined this week on decreases in the adult-use sectors of the markets of California and Colorado, as well as downturns in Washington State and Nevada. 

 

The national price for medical flower rebounded this week on an uptick in that section of the market in California, in addition to increasing prices in the medical-only systems of Maine, New Hampshire, and New Mexico.

December Forward unchanged at $1,470 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 51 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 51%, 34%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 52 pounds, 43 pounds, and 60 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,470 per pound, the December Forward represents a premium of 0.9% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,456 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

  • Taxes on Retailers and Cultivators to Increase in 2020
  •  
  • Colorado

    MED Urges Businesses to Immediately Stop Sale of Vape Products with Vitamin E Acetate, But Actual Deadline for Compliance is January 1, 2020

  • Oregon

  • Official Data for October Shows Sales of Concentrates & Extracts Increased Even as Ban on Flavored Vapes Was Implemented Mid-Month
  • Volume of Wet Plant Material Harvested in September & October This Year Reaches Roughly 3.6 Million Pounds, Up About 20% Compared to Same Months in 2017 & 2018
  •  
  • Washington

  • Regulators Implemented Ban on Vape Products With Vitamin E Acetate This Week
  •  
  • Michigan

  • Adult-Use Sales Can Start in Just Over Two Weeks, as Officials Announce 
  •  
  • Arizona

  • Almost 14,000 Pounds of Flower Sold to Patients in October, A New Record for the State’s Medical Market

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

22 November 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

November 15, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — November 15, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published November 15, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 0.8% to $1,464 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $31 to $1,684 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $988 to $2,379 per pound range. The average reported deal size decreased nominally to 2.2 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $3.23 and the simple average price was $3.71.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower increased by about 3% this week. The relative frequency of deals for greenhouse product decreased by the same proportion, while that for outdoor flower was unchanged. 

 

Outdoor product’s share of the total reported weight moved nationally contracted by over 3% this week. The relative volumes of warehouse and greenhouse flower grew by about 1% and 2%, respectively.

The U.S. Spot Index rose by 0.8% this week to settle at $1,464 per pound. This week’s national composite price once again represents a new year-to-date peak. In numerous previous years, the U.S. Spot Index frequently fell to its annual trough around early-mid November.   

 

On the state level, the Trailing 4-Week Average prices of California, Colorado, and Washington State are all still on the upswing as of this week, with Oregon the only one of the four major Western markets to see its trend line currently in decline. 

 

Still, increased supply from the fall harvest does appear to be having some impact on wholesale pricing. Rates for outdoor product fell this week in California after ascending consistently since mid-September. Prices for such flower in Colorado and Washington have stabilized in recent weeks at levels below peaks that were observed in late October and early November, respectively. Meanwhile, rates for outdoor flower in Oregon have been on the decline since the week ending October 11. As we discuss below, new data from state regulators shows that a very large amount of plant material was harvested in September, with Oregon growers likely attempting to pull their crops down because of the threat of mold from early autumn rains.

 

Apart from Oregon, though, declines in prices for outdoor flower have not been significant this harvest season. At the moment, demand from wholesale buyers attempting to bring in more inventory ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday may be contributing to upward pressure on rates.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers rose this week on increases in the adult-use sectors of the markets of California, Colorado, and Massachusetts, as well as an uptick in Oregon’s Spot. The national price for medical flower sank again this week on declines in that section of the market in California and Colorado, in addition to the medical-only systems of Arizona, Maine, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

December Forward up $20 to $1,470 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was nominally unchanged at 50 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 50%, 36%, and 14% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 51 pounds, 43 pounds, and 61 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,470 per pound, the December Forward represents a premium of 0.4% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,464 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

  • Volume-Weighted Average Price for Outdoor Flower Up 35% Year-Over-Year
  •  
  • Colorado

    Demand Slumped in September, But Downturn in Monthly Sales Did Not Impede Upward Trend in State Spot Index

  • Oregon

  • September Sales Down About 10% Month-Over-Month as Harvest Volume Nearly Doubles in Same Span
  •  
  • Washington

  • Retail Demand Reportedly Increasing Year-Over-Year, But Not to Same Degree as in Colorado or Oregon
  •  
  • Michigan

  • Adult-Use Sales Can Start in Just Over Two Weeks, as Officials Announce Inventory Transfers from Equivalent Medical to Adult-Use Licenses Will be Allowed Beginning December 1
  •  
  • Illinois

  • Retail Sales of Medical Cannabis in October Are Double Those from Same Month Last Year

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

15 November 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved