U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published April 2, 2021
U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 1.0% to $1,513 per pound.
The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased $20 to $1,761 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $976 to $2,546 per pound range. The average reported deal size increased to 2.4 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $3.33 and the simple average price was $3.88.
The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower increased by 1%. The relative frequency of deals for greenhouse product decreased by the same proportion, while that for outdoor flower was unchanged.
The relative volume of warehouse flower contracted by 2% this week. The relative volumes of greenhouse and outdoor product expanded by 1% each.
The U.S. Spot Index averaged $1,508 in March, down 0.3% from February’s mean national composite price of $1,513 per pound. While we have pointed out that sales typically jump in March relative to February, the U.S. Spot also dropped from February to March 2020, by 3%, from $1,424 to $1,381 per pound.
Looking back to last year at this time, our transaction data shows that the relative volumes of outdoor flower being traded in the West Coast states are smaller this year compared to the final week of March 2020. In addition to smaller proportions of lower-priced outdoor flower helping to lift wholesale prices, rates for all grow types are up compared to a year ago. This is particularly true for indoor-grown product. This week’s price of $1,990 per pound for warehouse flower is up by 14.2% from the rate of $1,742 per pound, documented in the week ending March 27, 2020.
High prices in the younger adult-use markets of Michigan, Illinois, and Massachusetts have helped to lift rates for indoor flower from those recorded last year. However, data out of Michigan this week suggests that the notable upward price pressure from newer markets evident over the course of the past year may wane going forward. While sales growth in Michigan continued in February, expanding production is helping to bring down wholesale and retail prices in the state.
October 2021 Implied Forward initially assessed at $1,640 per pound.
The average reported forward deal size was 46.7 pounds. The proportions of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 54%, 34%, and 12% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 59 pounds, 34 pounds, and 25 pounds, respectively.
At $1,550 per pound, the May Implied Forward represents a premium of 2.5% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,513 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.
Headlines from this week's Premium Report:
Comment Period on Cannabis Appellations Program Extended Until April 12
Total Adult-Use and Medical Cannabis Sales Exceed $83M in January, a New Record for the State
Bill to Legalize Cannabis for Adult-Use and Create Regulated Market Approved by State Legislature; Governor Expected to Sign
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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC
2 April 2021. Copyright © 2021 New Leaf Data Services, LLC. All rights reserved