January 18, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — January 18, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published January 18, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 1.6% at $1,144 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by $33 to $1,223 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $460 to $1,987 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 3.5 pounds this week from 4.0 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.52, and the simple average price was $2.70.

 

The relative frequency of trades for outdoor flower grew this week, by 1%, while that for greenhouse product decreased by the same proportion. The relative frequency of transactions for indoor flower was unchanged compared to last week. Each grow type’s share of the observed volume traded nationally was virtually unchanged week-over-week. The only shift discernible in the chart below is a less than 1% increase in the relative volume of outdoor product.

The U.S. Spot Index decreased for the third straight week, sliding by 1.6% to settle at $1,144 per pound. A sizeable week-over-week decline in the national volume-weighted price for outdoor flower was primarily responsible for pushing down the national composite rate, with such product seeing the most notable price erosion in California and Washington State this week. On the state level, Colorado and Washington were the only two major markets to see increases in their Spot rates, and relatively modest ones at that. Meanwhile, the second-tier markets of Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan all saw week-over-week downturns in their composite rates. Prices in Massachusetts continue to rise, as they have since the beginning of adult-use sales in late November, but trading volumes remain relatively small in the young market and have not yet exerted notable influence on the U.S. Spot Index.

Three straight weeks of declines have caused the Trailing 4-Week Average of the U.S. Spot to reverse course this week, ending – at least for the moment – the upward trend that commenced in mid-November. The trend line of California’s Spot Index also saw its positive momentum disrupted this week, flattening compared to last week after rising for a period slightly longer than the national average. Additionally, the Trailing 4-Week Average of Nevada’s composite price changed direction this week, turning upward slightly after sliding gradually from late November through last week. Meanwhile, the trend lines of the Spot Indices of Colorado, Oregon, Washington, and Michigan, remained fairly steady relative to the courses that they were on to close 2018.     

February 2019 Forward up $20 to $1,120 per pound.* The average reported forward deal size increased nominally to 55.5 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 55%, 28%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 62 pounds, 49 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,120 per pound, the February 2019 Forward represents a discount of 2.1% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,144 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Permanent Rules Allowing Cannabis Deliveries Statewide Now In Effect May Help Regulated Market Capture More of State’s Latent Demand

  • Colorado

    November 2018’s Monthly Retail Sales Dipped to Lowest Levels Since May, But State Spot Index Rose in the Weeks Prior to Thanksgiving

  • Oregon

  • 2018 Flower Sales Volume Up by About 55% Compared to Year Prior, But Increased Demand Overwhelmed by Voluminous Excess Supply as Prices Continue to Fall
  •  
  • Washington

  • State Spot Index Rises for Second Straight Week to Highest Price Since the End of November, But Still Below $550 Per Pound
  •  
  • Michigan

  • Regulators Allow Unlicensed Dispensaries to Reopen, Purchase Inventory from Caregivers, and Sell Untested Product in Effort to Ameliorate Supply Shortage in New Licensed Medical System
  •  
  • Arizona

  • Monthly Flower Sales Volume Once Again Sets New Record in December, Annual Total for 2018 Up by 40% Year-Over-Year

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

18 January 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

January 11, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — January 11, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published January 11, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down nominally 0.2% at $1,163 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by $36 to $1,257 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $496 to $2,017 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 4.0 pounds this week from 4.1 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.56, and the simple average price was $2.77.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower grew this week, by 1%, while that for greenhouse product decreased by the same proportion. The relative frequency of transactions for outdoor flower was unchanged compared to last week. Warehouse product’s share of the total reported weight moved nationally grew by 3% this week, while the relative volumes of greenhouse and outdoor flower contracted by 1% and 2%, respectively. The relative volume of outdoor product is down from its harvest-season peak of 33%, where it settled over several weeks in November.

The U.S. Spot Index slipped downward for the second consecutive week, decreasing slightly, by 0.2%, to $1,163 per pound. Prices for indoor flower dipped notably in multiple major markets this week, which depressed the national average for such product and pulled down the U.S. composite rate. The nation’s two largest markets – California and Colorado – saw their Spot Indices hold fairly steady compared to last week, with both seeing nominal rises, with the same going for Nevada. Meanwhile, Oregon and Arizona were the two most sizeable state markets to see downturns in their composite prices, while decreases in the Spot prices of Illinois and New Mexico also applied downward pressure on the national average. Overall, this week’s U.S. Spot Index is down by 13.2% year-over-year, compared to the rate of $1,340 per pound documented in the week ending January 12, 2017.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets rose slightly this week. Rising rates in Colorado, Washington, and Nevada, with assistance from upticks in Alaska and Massachusetts, outweighed a decrease in Oregon. The composite price in California’s adult-use sector was virtually flat week-over-week. Sinking wholesale rates in Arizona, Illinois, and New Mexico were primarily responsible for a marginal decrease in the national price for product designated for registered patients.     

February 2019 Forward unchanged at $1,100 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size declined nominally to 55.2 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 55%, 29%, and 17% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 62 pounds, 49 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,100 per pound, the February 2019 Forward represents a discount of 5.4% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,163 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    State Spot Index Climbs Gradually in Early Weeks of 2019, Continuing Trend from End of 2018

  • Colorado

    December’s Monthly Spot Index Up Over 9% Compared to Prior Month, But Quarterly Composite Prices Virtually Flat from Q3 to Q4 2018

  • Oregon

  • Volume-Weighted Price for Indoor Flower Declines for Fifth Straight Week, Falls to Historic Low for Oregon’s Market
  •  
  • Washington

  • Average Spot Rate for Q4 2018 Down by 18% Compared to Previous Quarter
  •  
  • Massachusetts

  • Spot Index Rises for Twelfth Consecutive Week, Exceeding 2018’s Annual High Price
  •  
  • Illinois

  • Medical Market Expands Dramatically in 2018: Retail and Wholesale Revenues Up by 58% and 55%, Respectively, from 2017, Driving 17% Rise in Spot Index Over the Course of Last Year

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

11 January 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

January 4, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — January 4, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published January 4, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index opens 2019 down 0.9% at $1,165 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by $48 to $1,292 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $524 to $2,061 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 4.1 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.57, and the simple average price was $2.85.

 

The relative frequency of trades for outdoor flower grew this week, by over 1%, while that for indoor product decreased by the same proportion. The relative frequency of transactions for greenhouse flower was unchanged compared to last week. Similarly, each individual grow type’s share of the total reported weight moved nationwide was stable compared to the final week of 2018. One year ago, in the opening week of 2018, the relative volumes of warehouse, greenhouse, and outdoor product were documented at 46%, 37%, and 17%, respectively.

The U.S. Spot Index opened 2019 with a small decline, sliding by 0.9% to settle at $1,165 per pound. A decrease in the national volume-weighted price for indoor-grown flower was primarily responsible for pulling down the U.S. composite price. The national price for warehouse flower slipped mainly due to declines in the going rate for that grow type in all three West Coast markets. Also from a state-level perspective, week-over-week decreases in the Spot Indices of Oregon, Washington State, and Arizona outweighed upward price movement in California, Colorado, and Michigan. This week’s U.S. Spot Index is off by 22.5% year-over-year, compared to the national composite price of $1,503 per pound, documented in the opening week of 2018.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets declined this week. Decreases in California’s adult-use sector, as well as in Oregon and Washington, outweighed upticks in Colorado and Alaska. Sinking wholesale rates in Arizona, Illinois, Maine, and New Mexico were primarily responsible for pushing down slightly the national price for product designated for registered patients.   

July 2019 Forward assessed at $1,000 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal was unchanged at 55.8 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 54%, 29%, and 17% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 63 pounds, 50 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,100 per pound, the February 2019 Forward represents a discount of 5.6% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,165 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Licensed Cultivators Outnumber Retailers by About Four to One as of End of 2018, the Largest Disparity of Any Adult-Use Market

  • Oregon

    State Officials Predict that Incorporating Industrial Hemp Products into Licensed Cannabis Market Could Hurt Growers, but May Improve Bottom Lines of Processors, Wholesalers, and Retailers

  • Nevada

  • Total Retail Sales Top $50 Million for the First Time in October, But State Spot Index Ticked Downward Over the Course of the Month
  •  
  • Michigan

  • Regulators Force Unlicensed Businesses to Shutter with Close of 2018, Shrinking Significantly the Number of Operations Serving the State’s 300,000 Patients
  •  

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4 January 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

December 28, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — December 28, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published December 28, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 2.5% to $1,175 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $46 to $1,341 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $549 to $2,133 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 4.1 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.59, and the simple average price was $2.96.

 

The relative frequency of trades for greenhouse flower grew this week, by 1%, while that for outdoor product decreased by the same proportion. The relative frequency of transactions for indoor flower was unchanged compared to last week. Warehouse-grown flower’s share of the total reported weight moved nationwide increased by 1% this week, as did the relative volume of greenhouse product. Consequently, the relative volume of outdoor flower contracted by 2% week-over-week.

The U.S. Spot Index finished 2018 with three consecutive weeks of positive movement, rising this week by 2.5% to settle at $1,175 per pound. For December, the national volume-weighted rate averaged $1,136 per pound, up by 5.7% from November’s mean monthly Spot Index of $1,075 per pound. Despite the recent upward momentum exhibited by the national composite price, however, a broader view demonstrates that this year saw significant price erosion. The U.S. Spot sank by 21.8% from the opening to the closing week of 2018. Additionally, for Q4, the national composite rate averaged $1,094 per pound, off by 32.8% compared to the quarterly average price of $1,417 per pound, documented in the same period in 2017. Yet, Q4 2018’s mean going rate is off by only 2.2% from Q3’s quarterly average price of $1,119 per pound. Rising rates in California, Colorado, and Oregon in the wake of the fall harvest period worked to mitigate the quarter-over-quarter downturn.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets jumped this week. Increases in California’s adult-use sector, as well as in Colorado and Nevada, outweighed marginal declines in Oregon and Washington. Sinking wholesale rates in the medical portion of California’s market, as well as in Arizona, were primarily responsible for pushing down slightly the national price for product designated for registered patients.   

January 2019 Forward closes up $25 to $1,150 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal decreased to 55.8 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 54%, 29%, and 17% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 63 pounds, 49 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,150 per pound, the January 2019 Forward represents a discount of 2.2% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,175 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    State Spot Index Falls by Almost 18% Over Course of 2018, Even as Compliance Costs Increased With Imposition of Licensing and Regulation

  • Colorado

    Weekly Composite Price Sees Smallest Proportional Decline of the Major Western Markets in 2018

  • Oregon

  • Composite Price Ticks Downward Slightly this Week, Off by 60% From Opening Week of 2018
  •  
  • Washington

  • State Spot Index Slides Over 55% from Beginning to End of 2018, Down Nearly 20% from Start of Q4
  •  

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

28 December 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

December 21, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — December 21, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published December 21, 2018

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 1.4% to $1,147 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $16 to $1,294 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $515 to $2,074 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 4.1 pounds from 4.2 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.53, and the simple average price was $2.85.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower grew this week, by 1%, while that for greenhouse product decreased by the same proportion. The relative frequency of transactions for outdoor flower was unchanged compared to last week. Warehouse-grown flower’s share of the total reported weight moved nationwide increased by over 2% this week, while the relative volume of outdoor product contracted by the same proportion. The relative volume of greenhouse flower was stable week-over-week.  

The U.S. Spot Index rose for the second straight week, by 1.4%, to settle at $1,147 per pound. This week’s national composite price is the highest observed since early in H2 – in the week ending July 13th, specifically – and is up by 9.6%, or $100, from the current annual trough documented in the week ending November 9th. Still, as we close in on the end of 2018, this week’s U.S. Spot rate is off by nearly 20% year-over-year, compared to the national composite price of $1,431 per pound reported for the week ending December 22, 2017. This week’s uptick in the U.S. Spot was due largely to rising supply side rates in California and Colorado. Perhaps the most notable state-level price movement – the increase that took place in Massachusetts – had a minimal effect on the overall national average.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets slipped slightly this week. Declines in California’s adult-use sector, as well as in Oregon, Nevada, and Alaska, outweighed small increases in Colorado and Washington. Increases in wholesale rates in the medical portion of California’s market, as well as in Michigan, Massachusetts, and Illinois, were primarily responsible for pushing up the national price for product designated for registered patients.   

January 2019 Forward up $25 to $1,125 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal decreased to 56.4 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 53%, 29%, and 18% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 65 pounds, 49 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,125 per pound, the January 2019 Forward represents a discount of 1.9% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,147 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Composite Price Has Climbed 13% Since Falling to Harvest-Season Trough in Late October

  • Colorado

    Year-to-Date Average Rates for Indoor and Greenhouse Flower Down by Roughly 15% and 35%, Respectively, Compared to 2017’s Mean Prices

  • Oregon

  • State Spot Index Down 5.5% This Week, Largest Week-Over-Week Decline Observed So Far in Q4
  •  
  • Washington

  • Volume-Weighted Price for Greenhouse Flower Falls to Historic Low for Such Product in Any Market, Approaching $525 Per Pound
  •  
  • Massachusetts

  • State Spot Index Jumps by $100 Week-Over-Week, Up Almost 8% Since Beginning of Adult-Use Sales

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

21 December 2018.  Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

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