July 19, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — July 19, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published July 19, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 4.3% to $1,349 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $85 to $1,528 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $736 to $2,319 per pound range. The average reported deal size increased to 2.3 pounds from 2.2 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.97 and the simple average price was $3.37.

 

The relative frequency of trades for outdoor flower decreased by more than 6% week-over-week. The relative frequencies of transactions involving indoor and greenhouse product increased by about 2% and 5% respectively. Outdoor flower’s share of the total documented weight moved nationally contracted by 9% this week. The relative volumes of warehouse and greenhouse flower expanded by 5% and 4%, respectively, relative to the week prior.

The U.S. Spot Index rose by 4.3% this week to settle at $1,349 per pound, establishing a new year-to-date high for the second straight week. Emphasizing the extent of the recent recovery in U.S wholesale cannabis rates this year, this week’s national composite price would have been the fifth-highest recorded in all of 2018. Strong year-over-year demand growth in the four major Western markets continues to apply upward pressure on prices, especially as licensing and harvest data out of California, Colorado, and Oregon indicate that legal production capacity has either decreased or stabilized relative to a year ago. A significant contraction in the relative volume of outdoor product also underpinned this week’s rise in the U.S. Spot, as wholesale buyers on the West Coast continue to spurn last year’s harvest and are turning to summer light-deprivation crops, which come with higher prices than 2018’s outdoor product.  

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers jumped this week on rises in that sector of the market in California and Colorado, as well as in Oregon’s licensed system, which makes no distinction between adult-use and medical product at the point of wholesale transfer. Prices for medical flower sank this week. Despite a rise in rates in that portion of California’s market, week-over-week declines were observed in essentially every sizeable medical-only legal cannabis program – namely Arizona, Illinois, Maine, Michigan, and Rhode Island. 

August Forward assessed up $75 to $1,275 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 49 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 55%, 29%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 42 pounds, 53 pounds, and 64 pounds, respectively.

 

The entire Six-Month Implied Forward Curve was assessed upward this week. Continued demand growth in the major Western markets this year appears as if it is straining production capacities that have stabilized or diminished relative to a year ago. Meanwhile, despite robust harvests cut down at the end of last year, buyers are reportedly dissatisfied with the remaining inventory on offer and are turning increasingly to higher-priced indoor, greenhouse, and light-deprivation product that has been cut down more recently.  

 

 

At $1,275 per pound, the August Forward represents a discount of 5.5% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,349 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

  • Audit of BCC Indicates that Oversight and Enforcement of Licensed Businesses Has Room to Become Significantly More Stringent
  •  
  • Colorado

    Retail Revenues Rise to Reach New Record High in May, YTD Sales Up Almost 9% Compared to First Five Months of 2018

  • Oregon

  • Historical Harvest Data Shows Large Increases in July 2018 and August 2017, Suggesting New Supplies Could Reach Market in the Coming Weeks
  •  
  • Washington

  • Traceability System Issues Hamper Wholesale Trading this Week as State Spot Index Continues to Climb
  •  
  • Arizona

  • June Sales Volume to Patients Declines After Two Straight Months of Record Demand, State Spot Index Also Slips Slightly

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

19 July 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

July 12, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — July 12, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published July 12, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 1.2% to $1,293 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased $13 to $1,442 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $640 to $2,245 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 2.2 pounds from 2.5 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.85 and the simple average price was $3.18.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower decreased by more than 2% week-over-week. The relative frequency of transactions involving greenhouse product increased by the same proportion, while that for outdoor flower was unchanged. Greenhouse product’s share of the total documented weight moved nationally expanded by over 8% this week. The relative volumes of warehouse and outdoor flower contracted by about 6% and 3% respectively, relative to the week prior. 

The U.S. Spot Index rose by 1.2% this week to settle at $1,293 per pound, establishing a new year-to-date high after a small decline last week. The upward trend in the national composite price is being observed even in the face of injections of supply from summer light-deprivation crops, particularly in California. However, we have in the past observed wholesale price rises at the outset of light-dep or outdoor harvests, as fresher plant material is more appealing and can garner higher rates than that which was cut down months ago, or even the year prior. Market participants are also reporting lower demand from retailers in the wake of July 4, due to shops stocking up on extra inventory ahead of time. Yet rates in the four major Western markets all ticked upward this week, with Nevada the only large market to see a decline in its Spot.  

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers declined this week as downturns in California and Nevada overwhelmed increases in Colorado, Oregon, and Washington State. Prices for medical flower increased sharply this week thanks to a notable jump in rates for such product in California. Additionally, apart from Maine and Vermont, every medical-only market covered in our reporting saw an increase in its Spot Index this week.

August Forward up $50 to $1,200 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 48.5 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 56%, 29%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 42 pounds, 53 pounds, and 63 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,200 per pound, the August Forward represents a discount of 7.2% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,293 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

  • Changes to Provisional Licensing Should Expand and Stabilize Number of Businesses Able to Participate in the State’s Licensed System
  •  
  • Colorado

    Volume-Weighted Rates for Indoor Flower Showed Notable Stability through First Half of 2019

  • Oregon

  • Behavior of State Spot Index in Q2 Shows that Wholesale Prices in Oregon Remain Some of Most Volatile in the U.S.
  •  
  • Washington

  • Average Price for Outdoor Flower in Q2 Down Compared to Prior Quarter, Bucking Trends Observed in Other West Coast Markets
  •  
  • Illinois

  • Demand Continues to Boom in State’s Medical Market; YTD Dispensary Sales for H1 2019 up 70% Compared to H1 2018, Retail Revenues for June Up 93% YOY

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

12 July 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

June 28, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — July 5, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published July 3, 2019

For Week Ending July 5, 2019

— Abbreviated Holiday Edition —

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 0.2% to $1,278 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased $12 to $1,455 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $651 to $2,259 per pound range. The average reported deal size decreased to 2.5 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.82 and the simple average price was $3.21.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower increased by 2% week-over-week. The relative frequencies of transactions involving greenhouse and outdoor product each decreased by 1%. Warehouse flower’s share of the total documented weight moved expanded by about 2%, while that for greenhouse product grew by roughly 4%. The relative volume of outdoor flower contracted by a corresponding proportion. 

January 2020 Forward initially assessed at $1,055 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was unchanged at 49 pounds. 

 

At $1,150 per pound, the August Forward represents a discount of 10% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,278 per pound.

 

The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

5 July 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

June 21, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — June 21, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published June 21, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 0.3% to $1,259 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price declined $16 to $1,429 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $619 to $2,238 per pound range. The average reported deal size decreased to 2.5 pounds from 2.7 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.78 and the simple average price was $3.15.

 

The relative frequency of trades for outdoor flower increased by 2% week-over-week. The relative frequency of transactions involving indoor and greenhouse product each decreased by 1%. Outdoor product’s share of the total documented weight moved nationally also expanded by almost 3% this week. The relative volumes of warehouse and greenhouse flower contracted by about 1% and 2%, respectively, relative to the week prior.  

 

The U.S. Spot Index rose marginally for the second straight week, increasing by 0.3% to settle at $1,259 per pound. This is the fifth consecutive week in which a new annual peak was established for the national composite price. Notable declines in the Spot Indices of California and Nevada this week diminished upward pressure on the national average from rising rates in Colorado, Oregon, and Washington State. As we expand upon below, Oregon’s market is experiencing unprecedented demand in recent months, while available information indicates that sales in Washington in March and April reached near-record levels. In regard to mid-sized markets, wholesale rates in Massachusetts and Michigan were on the upswing this week, but are not climbing as rapidly as they were earlier in the year. Meanwhile, Illinois’ Spot price has trended downward in Q2 after rising to one of the highest in the country at the close of Q1, while increased production in New Mexico is pushing down rates in that market.  

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers jumped this week on increases in Colorado, Oregon, Washington, and Alaska. Prices for medical flower were down this week, due mainly to declines in California, Colorado, Illinois, and New Mexico.  

July Forward unchanged at $1,200 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 50 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 59%, 30%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 42 pounds, 57 pounds, and 64 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,200 per pound, the July Forward represents a discount of 4.7% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,259 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

 

Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

  • Relative Volume of Outdoor Flower Traded in Legal Market is Decreasing in Q2 as Thousands of Temporary Cultivation Licenses Expire
  •  
  • Colorado

    Medical Cannabis Sales in Denver Up Year-Over-Year, Breaking from Statewide Trends

  • Oregon

  • Monthly Retail Revenue Reaches New Record High in May Even as Sales Volume Declines, Indicating Higher Price Points for Customers
  •  
  • Washington

  • Blackout of Plant and Inventory Tracking System Will Prevent Wholesale Trading for 30 Hours Beginning Night of July 13th
  •  
  • Arizona

  • State Spot Index on the Rise in May as New Sales Volume Records Established and State’s Patient Count Tops 200,000
  •  
  • New Mexico

  • State Data Shows Over 75% Expansion of Production in Q1 2019 from Rise in Plant Count Limits, Larger Harvests Pushing Down Spot Index in Current Quarter

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

21 June 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

June 14, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — June 14, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published June 14, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 0.4% to $1,256 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $13 to $1,445 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $619 to $2,270 per pound range. The average reported deal size increased to 2.7 pounds from 2.6 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.77 and the simple average price was $3.18.

 

The relative frequency of trades for outdoor flower increased by 2% week-over-week. The relative frequency of transactions involving greenhouse product decreased by the same proportion, while that for deals for indoor flower was unchanged. Outdoor product’s share of the total documented weight moved nationally also expanded by 2% this week. The relative volume of greenhouse flower contracted by the same proportion, while that for warehouse flower was unchanged.   

 

The U.S. Spot Index rose by 0.4% this week to settle at $1,256 per pound, establishing a new year-to-date peak for the fourth consecutive week. All four of the major Western markets – California, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington – saw upticks in their composite prices this week. Positive trends in rates for outdoor flower in California and Oregon continued to lift the Spot Indices of those states, while volume-weighted prices for greenhouse product in Colorado and Washington rose to year-to-date highs. In contrast to last year at this time, upward price pressure on the national average is also originating from Massachusetts, Michigan, and Nevada. Massachusetts’ young adult-use market generated over $30 million in retail sales in both April and May, as we expand upon further below, after opening in late November last year. 

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers jumped this week on increases in every functioning adult-use market except for Nevada, which saw only a slight decrease. Prices for medical flower were down this week, mainly on declines in California and Arizona.

July Forward assessed up $75 to $1,200 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 48 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 56%, 28%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 41 pounds, 51 pounds, and 64 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,200 per pound, the July Forward represents a discount of 4.4% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,256 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

 

Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

  • Monthly Average Prices in Adult-Use Sector Declined in each Month from January through May, But Weekly Rates for Recreational Flower Are on the Rise Recently
  •  
  • Colorado

    Retail Sales Declined in April, While State Spot Index Stabilized to Close the Month After Early Declines

  • Oregon

  • State Spot Index Jumps to New Annual Peak, Settling Above $700 Per Pound for First Time in 2019
  •  
  • Washington

  • Composite Price Climbs to Year-to-Date High on Rising Rates for Indoor and Greenhouse Flower
  •  
  • Massachusetts

  • Adult-Use Retail Demand and Production Both Increased Significantly in May, as Wholesale Prices Declined by Small Margins
  •  
  • Illinois

  • Retail Medical Cannabis Sales Reached New Record High for Fourth Straight Month in May, Up by Almost 90% Year-Over-Year

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

14 June 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved