February 22, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — February 22, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published February 22, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 0.7% at $1,153 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price was nominally unchanged at $1,223 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $414 to $2,031 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 3.1 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.54, and the simple average price was $2.70.

 

The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower increased week-over-week, by 2%, while transactions involving greenhouse product saw a decline in this metric of the same proportion. Warehouse flower’s share of the total reported weight moved nationwide shrank slightly this week, by about 1%, with the relative volumes of greenhouse and outdoor product both expanding modestly, by less than 1% each. The relative stability of national Transaction Stats in recent weeks belies their diversity in the major state markets, illustrated below.

The U.S. Spot Index declined by 0.7% this week to settle at $1,153 per pound. The volume-weighted price for indoor flower, which had risen fairly steadily from mid-January, leveled off this week. On a state level, Colorado was the only one of the major Western markets to see an increase in its Spot rate, while Massachusetts was the only other state with a functioning adult-use market to see an increase in its overall going price, and a relatively small one at that. The national composite rate averaged $1,154 per pound for February, off nominally from January’s monthly mean of $1,157 per pound. In 2018, the U.S. Spot Index slipped by 4.8% from January to February, from $1,343 to $1,279 per pound. Of the major and secondary state markets, only prices in Oregon and Nevada are currently displaying behavior at least somewhat similar to observations from the first two months of 2018.    

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets slipped this week on decreases in California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, and Alaska. Declines in the medical market of Arizona pulled down the national price for product designated for registered patients recorded this week, even as numerous other smaller medical systems saw upticks.        

March 2019 Forward assessed up $50 at $1,150 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size decreased to 48 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 56%, 28%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 52 pounds, 44 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,150 per pound, the March Forward represents a discount of 0.3% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,153 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Tax Department Data Shows Volume of Flower Sold by Cultivators Increased by 10% in Q4, while Amount of Leaves and Trim Moved by Growers More Than Doubled

  • Colorado

    Denver’s Local Market Likely to See Total Cannabis Sales Decline in 2018 and Account for Smaller Percentage of Statewide Retail Revenues Compared to 2017

  • Oregon

  • Spot Index Sinks to Historic Low for State’s Market, Settling at Less Than $600 Per Pound; State Lawmakers to Discuss Bill That Would Give Regulators Authority to Cease Issuing Cultivation Licenses
  •  
  • Washington

  • Gradual Declines in the Relative Volume of Outdoor Flower Subsequent to 2018’s Fall Harvest Have Contributed to the Recent Rise in the State Spot Index
  •  
  • Arizona

  • Medical Cannabis Sales Decline in January from December’s Record Highs, but Demand Remains Strong Overall as Patient Based Continues to Expand

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

22 February 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

February 15, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — February 15, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published February 15, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 1.7% at $1,162 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by $25 to $1,223 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $425 to $2,020 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 3.2 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.56, and the simple average price was $2.70.


The relative frequency of trades for both indoor and outdoor flower increased week-over-week, by 1% each, while transactions involving greenhouse product saw a 2% decline in this metric. Warehouse flower’s share of the total reported weight moved nationwide grew slightly this week, by 1%, with the relative volume of greenhouse product contracting by the same proportion. Outdoor product is the only grow type to see its relative volume exceed its relative frequency of trades.   

The U.S. Spot Index increased by 1.7% this week to settle at $1,162 per pound. Oregon and Arizona were the only sizeable markets to see downturns in their composite prices this week, which were overwhelmed by increases in the Spot Indices of California, Colorado, Washington State, and Nevada. Smaller markets such as Massachusetts, Michigan, Illinois, and Maine have also applied consistent upward pressure on the national volume-weighted average this year. Based on historical sales data from more mature adult-use markets, January and February are typically months that see lulls in sales compared to the higher-demand months of December and March. While the U.S. Spot Index did dip in the latter weeks of January and the early ones of February, this week’s price is virtually identical to the rate of $1,165 per pound, observed at the outset of the year.  

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets jumped this week, primarily due to rises in California, Colorado, Washington, and Nevada. Declines in the medical markets of Arizona and New Mexico pulled down the national price for product designated for registered patients recorded this week, with assistance decreases in the smaller markets of New Hampshire and Vermont.         

March 2019 Forward unchanged at $1,100 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size decreased to 49.3 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 55%, 28%, and 17% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 53 pounds, 45 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,100 per pound, the March Forward represents a discount of 5.3% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,162 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Rising Volume-Weighted Prices for Indoor Flower Persist This Week, Now Up by Almost 7% from Beginning of 2019

  • Colorado

    Monthly Sales Increase in December 2018, Total Retail Revenues Reach $1.54 Billion for Last Year

  • Oregon

  • State Spot Index Drops to Within a Few Dollars of Historic Low Established in October 2018
  •  
  • Washington

  • Notable Homogeneity Observed in Pricing of Individual Wholesale Transactions Across All Grow Types
  •  
  • Michigan

  • State Officials Project About $300 Million in Retail Sales from Medical Cannabis Program in Period from October 2018 through September 2019, But Early Revenue Figures Reported to be Low
  •  
  • Illinois

  • Monthly Cultivator Revenues Reach Record High for State’s Market in January 2019 as State Spot Index Continues to Trend Upward

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

15 February 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

February 8, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — February 8, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published February 8, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 1.4% at $1,142 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by $8 to $1,248 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $429 to $2,067 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 3.2 pounds this week from 3.3 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.52, and the simple average price was $2.75.


The relative frequency of trades for outdoor flower increased week-over-week, by almost 2%, while transactions involving indoor and greenhouse product each saw an almost 1% decline in this metric. Similar movement was observed in regard to the relative volumes of the three grow types: That for outdoor flower expanded by 2% compared to last week, while warehouse and greenhouse product’s shares of the total reported weight moved each contracted by 1%.  

The U.S. Spot Index slipped by 1.4% this week to settle at $1,142 per pound. Although several mid-sized markets saw notable increases in their Spot Indices this week – including Massachusetts and Illinois – that upward price pressure was overwhelmed by declines in the composite rates of California, Colorado, and Oregon, with the West Coast markets just mentioned each seeing decreases of over $30 compared to last week. As of this week, the tug-of-war between the upward-trending national price for warehouse flower and the slowly-sliding U.S. averages for greenhouse and outdoor product saw the latter gain the upper hand. Elevated rates in California have for the time being buoyed the national price for indoor flower against sliding prices for such product in Colorado and Oregon this year.

The Trailing 4-Week Average of the U.S. Spot Index persisted this week in the very gradual downward slide that has so far marked 2019, though its negative momentum accelerated somewhat this week. At the moment, the national average is being pulled down by declines in the trend lines of the Spot Indices of California and Oregon. Nevada’s Trailing 4-Week Average price also applying negative pressure, even as sales in the Silver State appear to be growing, at least as of late last year, as we discuss below. The trend line of Michigan’s Spot Index continued to rise this week, as more product recalls likely have buyers looking for inventory that they can be assured will not run afoul of regulators, despite being technically allowed to sell untested product.       

March 2019 Forward unchanged at $1,100 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size decreased to 53.8 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 56%, 28%, and 15% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 60 pounds, 48 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,100 per pound, the March Forward represents a discount of 3.7% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,142 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    BCC Data Provides Glimpse of Volume of Flower Traded in California’s Licensed System from July 2018 through January 2019

  • Colorado

    State Spot Index Sees Small Week-Over-Week Decline, First Downward Movement Since Early November 2018

  • Oregon

  • OLCC’s Supply & Demand Report Contains Insights on Inventory Management by License Type
  •  
  • Washington

  • LCB Reminds Producer / Processors that Volume Discounting in Deals with Retailers is Prohibited
  •  
  • Nevada

  • Cumulative and Adult-Use Sales Both Reach New Record Highs for State’s Market in November 2018, but Stable Spot Index Indicates Sufficient Supply
  •  

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

8 February 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

February 1, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — February 1, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published February 1, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up nominally 0.2% at $1,159 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $3 to $1,256 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $458 to $2,054 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 3.3 pounds this week from 3.4 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.56, and the simple average price was $2.77.

 

National Transaction Stats were very stable week-over-week to begin February. Indeed, they were virtually unchanged from the week prior. Stability in the metrics illustrated in the chart below likely stems in large part from the general abundance of wholesale flower available in the major markets, along with the maturation of adult-use systems in some of those states. With plentiful inventory and greater understanding of sales trends, buyers do not feel compelled to snap up new harvests as soon as they come down and are less likely to be caught off guard by surges in demand.

The U.S. Spot Index held fairly steady this week, inching upward by $2 to settle at $1,159 per pound. Elevated rates for indoor-grown flower in California helped lift the national volume-weighted price for such product, which buoyed the U.S. composite rate against declines in prices for sun-grown flower. From a state-level perspective, positive trends in wholesale prices in Colorado, the country’s second-largest legal market, have been providing consistent upward pressure on the U.S. Spot Index through the early weeks of this year. Meanwhile, the newer adult-use markets of Nevada and Alaska appear as if consistent declines could be in the offing, though the opening of more storefronts and consolidation in the former later this year may disrupt current trends.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets increased again this week. Rising rates in that sector of the market in California, as well as in Colorado, Washington, and Massachusetts outweighed declines in Oregon, Nevada, and Alaska. For the second straight week, decreasing wholesale rates in the medical section of California’s market pulled down the national price for product designated for registered patients recorded this week.      

August 2019 Forward initially assessed at $1,015 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size decreased to 54.5 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 57%, 27%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 60 pounds, 49 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.

 

The August Forward represents a decrease of 1% relative to the July Forward. For context, the U.S. Spot Index declined 2.0% from July to August in 2017 – from $1,614 to $1,582 per pound – and by 2.6% in the same span in 2018 – from $1,147 to $1,117 per pound.

 

At $1,100 per pound, the March Forward represents a discount of 5% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,159 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    State Treasurer and Legislator Introduce Plan to Lower Taxes and Stimulate Licensed Market, But its Passage into Law and Ultimate Impact Uncertain

  • Colorado

    Upward Trend in Wholesale Prices That Closed 2018 Continued Through January, But Pace of Increase Slowed

  • Oregon

  • Monthly Average Price for Indoor Flower in January was Lowest in State’s History at Less Than $900 Per Pound
  •  
  • Washington

  • Monthly Spot Index Rose by 2% in January; First Increase Since August 2018
  •  
  • Nevada

  • Cultivators See Almost 20% Decrease in Wholesale Excise Tax on Flower for H1 2019 Compared to Second Half of 2018
  •  
  • Florida

  • New Governor, State Lawmakers Suggest that Vertical Integration Requirement and License Caps May be Addressed this Year

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

1 February 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

January 25, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — January 25, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published January 25, 2019

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 1.1% at $1,157 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $30 to $1,253 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $464 to $2,043 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 3.4 pounds this week from 3.5 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $2.55, and the simple average price was $2.76.


The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower grew this week, by 1%, while that for greenhouse product decreased by the same proportion. The relative frequency of transactions for outdoor flower was unchanged compared to last week. The relative volumes of warehouse and greenhouse flower both contracted week-over-week, by less than 1% each. Meanwhile, outdoor product’s share of the total documented weight moved nationally grew by about 1% compared to the week prior.   

The U.S. Spot Index ticked upward this week, by 1.1%, to settle at $1,157 per pound, which was also the monthly average price for January. This month marks the second consecutive one in which the national monthly mean has risen, after slipping to its annual low for 2018 in November. Still, January 2019’s monthly rate is down by almost 14% compared to a year ago, when the U.S. Spot averaged $1,343 per pound in the same month in 2018. California and Alaska were the only two state markets covered by our reporting to see declines in their Spot Indices this week, while that of Nevada was flat compared to last week.

The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold in adult-use markets rose this week. Rising rates in Colorado, Oregon, Washington, and Massachusetts outweighed decreases in that sector of the market in California, as well as in Alaska. Decreasing wholesale rates in the medical section of California’s market were almost wholly responsible for the dip in the national price for product designated for registered patients recorded this week.     

February 2019 Forward closing assessment up $30 to $1,150 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size decreased nominally to 55.2 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 56%, 28%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 62 pounds, 49 pounds, and 43 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,150 per pound, the February 2019 Forward represents a discount of 0.6% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,157 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Sample Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:

  • California

    Increased Relative Volumes of Lower-Priced Greenhouse and Outdoor Flower Pull Down State Spot Index After Steadiness in the First Three Weeks of 2019

  • Colorado

    Upward Trend in Wholesale Pricing Continues, Composite Price Up 18% From 2018’s Annual Low in November

  • Oregon

  • Growing Sales of Extracts and Infused Products May Help Draw Down State’s Oversupply of Flower and Trim
  •  
  • Washington

  • State Spot Index Reaches Highest Point Since Early November 2018
  •  
  • Massachusetts

  • State Spot Index Continues to Rise as Adult-Use Sales Increase, But Most Wholesale Deals Still Taking Place in Medical Sector
  •  
  • Illinois

  • Opioid Alternative Program Could Increase Demand in Coming Months in Market Already Seeing Wholesale Prices Above $3,000 Per Pound

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

25 January 2019.  Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved