April 5, 2019

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — April 5, 2019

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Published April 5, 2019

The CCSI remained essentially flat this week at C$6.94 per gram, when compared to last week’s C$6.96 per gram. The price range has been relatively steady over the past six weeks, with only a $C0.18 difference between the low and high extremes observed in that span. This week’s price of C$6.94 per gram equates to US$2,359 per pound at current exchange rates.

 

According to Statistics Canada, 15.4% of the Canadian population above the age of 15 reported using cannabis, which works out to approximately 4.63 million people across Canada. Also from the Government of Canada, we are able to access nationwide retail sales figures. From the latest published data, we can see that C$53.38M in revenue was generated in the month of January. January’s sales are down by C$2.5M, or 4.5%, from those of December 2018.

 

When we merged the January sales data with the reported number of users, we are able to estimate the average spend per person. These calculations tell a very interesting story about the usage in each province, and have implications for the development of the legal market across the country.

British Columbia, known colloquially to be the cannabis capital of Canada, has a uniquely low spend per person. This implies that the lack of product inventory or higher prices at legal retail outlets have resulted in much of the population turning to the illicit market for their supply.

 

Ontario, the largest province with almost 38% of the Canadian population, has sales figures lower than Quebec and Alberta. The reason cannabis users have been spending less on legal cannabis could be due to the exclusively online sales format that prevailed until April 1st of this year. With the recent opening of 10 brick-and-mortar locations in Ontario and 15 more by the end of this month, we expect sales figures and spend per person to increase significantly.


Manitoba, Newfoundland & Labrador, Alberta, and New Brunswick each has a calculated spend of approximately C$25/person during January. Based on our price index, this equates to approximately 2.5 grams of usage per month.

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

5 April 2019 Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

March 29, 2019

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — March 29, 2019

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Published March 29, 2019

The CCSI dropped this week by 2.3% to C$6.96 per gram, from last week’s C$7.12 per gram. This week’s price of C$6.96 per gram equates to US$2,356 per pound at current exchange rates.


This week we once again turn to the Cannabis Tracking System report issued by the Government of Canada. With the addition of January data, we see that Canadian sales have been relatively stable since legalization, averaging about 7,070 Kg sold monthly in the non-medical and medical markets. In the five months of data available, non-medical sales have averaged 5,258 Kg across Canada. Non-medical sales are about three times higher than medical sales.

Total finished inventory, which is inventory that is packaged and labelled, sits at 19,520 Kg as of the end of January. This is unsold product stored at the licensed producer’s (LP) facility, or at an  online distribution or retail storefront location, as reflected in the chart below. This inventory equates to 2.7 months worth of sales at current rates [19,520 / 7,069 kg].

Total unfinished inventory, which is inventory that is NOT packaged and labelled for retail sale, sits at 114,628 Kg as of the end of January. This inventory equates to 16.2 months worth of sales at current rates [114,628 / 7,069 kg].

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

29 March 2019 Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

March 22, 2019

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — March 22, 2019

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Published March 22, 2019

The CCSI moved higher by 1.6% this week to C$7.12 per gram, from last week’s C$7.01 per gram. The CCSI has been quite stable over the past three weeks, hovering within a C$0.11 range. This week’s price of C$7.12 per gram equates to US$2,421 per pound at current exchange rates.


This week we focus in on the size of the Canadian cannabis market. The Government of Canada did a national cannabis survey to assess the number of people using cannabis in Q4 2018. The survey estimates cannabis use of all citizens over the age of 15 by age, location, and gender. The potential size of this market is roughly 29.3M citizens.

Based on the survey, approximately 4.63M people or 15.8% of Canadians aged 15+ reported cannabis use. Males were more likely to use cannabis with 20.1% reporting use, as compared to only 11.4% of females.

Looking at cannabis use by age, the 18 to 24 year old population was most likely to use with 28.1% having used cannabis in the last quarter of the year. The 25 to 44 age group was the second most likely age group to use with 23.1%.

Lastly, the same data was broken out by province. The four largest provinces – Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and Alberta – showed total usage around 13.6% of the population. The four maritime provinces – Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Newfoundland, and Prince Edward Island – showed higher usage with 15.7% of the population in those provinces reporting cannabis use.

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

22 March 2019 Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

March 15, 2019

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — March 15, 2019

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Published March 15, 2019

The CCSI declined by 1.4% this week to C$7.01 per gram, from last week’s C$7.10 per gram. The average price over the past eight weeks is assessed to be C$6.60 per gram, which includes the excise duties. This week’s price of C$7.10 per gram equates to US$2,378 per pound at current exchange rates.

 

This week we provide an update on recent sales trends. On March 12th, the Government of Canada’s Cannabis Tracking System published an updated supply and demand report. The newly published data made some revisions to sales figures from Q4 2018 and added January 2019 data. Today we look specifically at recreational market sales, defined formally as “CRA-stamped cannabis products sold directly in the Canadian retail market (either online or in-person) for non-medical purposes.”

A closer look into sales from individual provinces provides more perspective on the current purchasing habits of consumers according to their jurisdiction. British Columbia’s (BC’s) December revenues were remarkably low, with total retail sales tallying only C$1.24M. This despite BC being the third largest province by population, although it is possible that it is also home to Canada’s most established illicit market.

 

Ontario’s December sales are similarly disproportionate to its population size. Ontario is home to 38% of the total Canadian population, but sales from November to December dropped by a staggering 14% to C$8.72M, 16% of the nationwide total.

 

The two noteworthy positive highlights were December sales growth in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which saw increases in retail revenues of 12% and 5%, respectively.As seen in the charts above, there was a substantial revision made to the reported sales figures for the Q4 2018 non-medical dry cannabis and oils categories (see yellow line). The Government does state that the reported data is preliminary and that “verification and validation of this data is ongoing.” A close analysis of the most current figures is especially warranted in this case as the overall changes are quite significant.

Total sales of non-medical dry cannabis in Q4 2018 were revised higher by 634 kg, or 4.2%, and total sales of non-medical cannabis oil for the same time period were revised higher by 1,128 litres, or 20.8%. Going forward we need to remember that large revisions are always on the table, especially as the Government builds error correction into their models and cannabis market participants become more accustomed to, and efficient at, reporting inventory and sales data.

 

The addition of the January data provided some further insight into sales trends. Non-medical dry cannabis sales for January dropped by 4.5% from December sales to 5,336 kg across Canada. January non-medical oil sales told another story. Total oil sales sharply increased by 10.7% to 2,873 litres. All this stated, we take this latest month of data with a grain of salt as potential revisions could be made in the future.

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

15 March 2019 Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

March 8, 2019

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — March 8, 2019

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Published March 8, 2019

The CCSI once again moved higher this week with a 3.4% gain to C$7.10 per gram, from last week’s C$6.87 per gram. The index is steadily moving higher from a low of C$6.04 hit during the week ending February 15. This week’s price of C$7.10 per gram equates to US$2,412 per pound at current exchange rates.

This week we provide an update on the monthly retail sales by province and territory data released by Statistics Canada. This published dataset now gives us a full glimpse into a complete quarter of post-legalization sales from both the provincial online stores and brick & mortar shops. The initial revenue figures for Q4 2018 are relatively low. December sales across Canada totaled C$55.2M, up 2% over the previous month.

Source: Cannabis Benchmarks, Statistics Canada [Table  20-10-0008-01]

A closer look into sales from individual provinces provides more perspective on the current purchasing habits of consumers according to their jurisdiction. British Columbia’s (BC’s) December revenues were remarkably low, with total retail sales tallying only C$1.24M. This despite BC being the third largest province by population, although it is possible that it is also home to Canada’s most established illicit market.

 

Ontario’s December sales are similarly disproportionate to its population size. Ontario is home to 38% of the total Canadian population, but sales from November to December dropped by a staggering 14% to C$8.72M, 16% of the nationwide total.

 

The two noteworthy positive highlights were December sales growth in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which saw increases in retail revenues of 12% and 5%, respectively.

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

8 March 2019 Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved