CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED AUGUST 3, 2018
U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 1.0% to $1,126 per pound.
The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased by $5 to $1,331 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $574 to $2,088 per pound range. The average deal size was nominally unchanged at 5.7 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.48, and the simple average price was $2.93.
National Transaction Stats this week maintained the relative stability that has characterized them for most of the summer to this point. The relative frequency of trades for each grow type was essentially unchanged compared to last week. Greenhouse-grown flower’s share of the total reported weight moved nationwide contracted very slightly week-over-week, by about 1%, resulting in marginal upticks in the relative volumes of the other two grow types. Summers in prior years have seen increases in the relative volume of greenhouse product.
The U.S. Spot Index saw its recent downward slide disrupted this week. A small uptick in the national composite price was underpinned by slight rises in the volume-weighted averages of each individual grow type. Average deal sizes were also fairly stable, although all such metrics were observed to contract somewhat compared to last week. Still, no average transaction volume shrank by more than a tenth of a pound in absolute terms.
This week’s modest increase in the weekly U.S. Spot was not enough to disrupt the persistent downward trend of its Trailing 4-Week Average. However, the trend lines of some state-level Spot Indices are exhibiting changes in behavior. That of Washington State, which this week is displaying discernible upward momentum for the first time this year, is the most notable. Additionally, the Trailing 4-Week average of California’s composite price appears essentially flat, but is actually off by just a few dollars compared to that which was documented last week. The trend lines of the other major and secondary markets depicted in the chart below generally continued their recent behavior this week.
February 2019 Forward initially assessed at $1,065 per pound.
The average reported forward deal was 69 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 44%, 40%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 90 pounds, 56 pounds, and 44 pounds, respectively.
At $1,200 per pound, the September Forward represents a premium of 6.6% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,126 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.
Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:
- Early Data on Results of New Required Testing Show that Only 6% of Batches Are Failing Screenings that Require Product to be Removed from Circulation
- With Advent of Licensing and Regulation, Severe Wildfire Season Could Have Greater Impact on Wholesale Pricing Than in Prior Years
- Wholesale Pricing Stabilizes Momentarily, Disrupting Downward Slide Extending from Early June, As Required Pesticide Testing is Implemented
- Retail Sales Revenue from Flower Down Marginally in June 2018 compared to June 2017, Despite Volume of Product Sold Increasing Almost 60%
- State Spot Index Experiences Largest Increase Observed Thus Far in 2018, But Remains the Lowest in the Country
- Total Retail Sales Up Slightly Month-Over-Month in May, While Tax Collections on Wholesale Trading and State Spot Index Decline
Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC
3 August 2018. Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC. All rights reserved