CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT — PUBLISHED JULY 13, 2018
U.S. Cannabis Spot Index down 1.3% to $1,157 per pound.
The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased by $31 to $1,319 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $578 to $2,060 per pound range. The average deal size was nominally unchanged at 5.6 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.55, and the simple average price was $2.91.
The relative frequency of trades for indoor-grown flower shrank by 4% week-over-week; that for greenhouse product saw a 3% increase, while transactions involving outdoor flower grew in frequency by 1% compared to last week. The relative volumes of the two sun-fueled grow types also expanded week-over-week, albeit modestly, by just 1% each. As a result, warehouse product’s share of the total documented weight moved nationally contracted by 2% compared to last week.
The U.S. Spot Index was back on the decline this week after last week’s momentary uptick. A small decrease in the national volume-weighted price for indoor product overwhelmed slight rises in the going rates for greenhouse and outdoor flower to establish a new all-time low national composite price. Average deal sizes on the national level were fairly steady for the most part this week, with trades for greenhouse product experiencing the largest proportional shift.
The trend line of the U.S. Spot Index continued this week to demonstrate the steady and gradual downswing that has characterized it since the 4/20 holiday. This despite the Trailing 4-Week Average of California’s composite price rising to nearly meet that of the national average in recent weeks. However, the downward pressure exerted by the Spot Indices of the other adult-use markets shown in the chart below has overwhelmed any upward force from California in the weeks around the transition from Q2 to Q3. Meanwhile, wholesale pricing in Michigan continues to trend upward as existing operators with local approval await state licenses, with the possibility of further disruption in the weeks and months to come as the state’s regulated medical market opens and establishes itself.
August Forward unchanged at $1,300 per pound.
The average forward deal increased 1 pound to 67 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower represented 44%, 41%, and 14% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal size for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 77 pounds, 62 pounds, and 48 pounds, respectively.
At $1,300 per pound, the August Forward represents a premium of 12.4% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,157 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.
Sample headlines from this week’s Premium Report:
- State Spot Index Rises Slightly for Third Consecutive Week, Accompanied by Reports of Supply “Bottleneck” at the Lab Testing Level
- Volume-Weighted Price for Warehouse-Grown Flower Slips Below $1,000 Per Pound for the First Time
- State Spot Index Falls Below $900 Per Pound to Establish Another Historic Low for Oregon
- Composite Price Steady Week-Over-Week, But Going Rate for Greenhouse Product Continues to Sink and Reaches New All-Time Low for the Grow Type in Any Market
- State Spot Index Sees Sharp Drop for Third Consecutive Week on Increased Relative Volume of Lower-Priced Greenhouse Flower
Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC
13 July 2018. Copyright © 2018 New Leaf Data Services, LLC. All rights reserved