August 12, 2022

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — August 12, 2022

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published August 12, 2022

The U.S. Cannabis Spot Index decreased 5.3% to $1,007 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased $45 to $1,279 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $567 to $1,990 per pound range. The average reported deal size increased to 2.6 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.22 and the simple average price was $2.82.

 

The relative transaction frequency of indoor product fell 2%, while that of greenhouse product rose 2%. Outdoor transaction frequency was unchanged.

 

 

The relative volume of indoor product fell 5%; that of greenhouse flower rose 1% and that of outdoor flower rose 5%.

 

The Montana Department of Revenue (MDR) issued sales data for July 2022. July 2022 total sales, at $26.5 million, were up 6.6% over June 2022 sales of $24.9 million. Adult use sales, at $19.2 million, jumped just over 11% in July, the largest month-on-month increase since the February to March 2022 increase of 17.2%. July 2022 medical sales are down for the fourth month in a row, sliding 3.5% to $7.4 million.

 

The June 2022 Yellowstone National Park flood dented the hopes of many cannabis businesses clustered along Montana’s southern border, but overall state sales have still climbed to a record high. Counties in Montana with sales over $1 million were located either near the Idaho border (a state with no legal cannabis market), the northern border of Yellowstone National Park, and / or in counties with the largest cities in the state.  

 


The National Park Service has opened the Northern and Northeastern entrances to the park to hikers and bicycle riders, but both entrances, located in Montana, remained closed to motor vehicles. Adult use sales continue to claim a larger share of total sales in the state. Since sales began in January 2022, the adult use share of the market has climbed from 58.2% to 72.2%. It remains to be seen if the surge in adult use sales in July will stick given the influx of tourists to the state despite the Yellowstone flood.

September 2022 Implied Forward assessed down $25 to $1,030 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 81 pounds. The proportions of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 52%, 33%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively.

 

The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 86 pounds, 79 pounds, and 63 pounds, respectively.

 

 

At $1,030 per pound, the September 2022 Implied Forward represents a premium of 2.3% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,007 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines from this week's Premium Report:

Colorado

June Sales Down 21.5% Year-on-Year as Pandemic Effects Recede

Oregon

Consequences Phase in Full Bloom – Interview

Maine

July Sales Soar over 21% – Another New Record

Montana

July Adult Use Sales Jump 11%

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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

12 August 2022.  Copyright © 2022 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — August 12, 2022

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Week Ending August 12, 2022
CCSI image 1 2022-08-12

*The provincial excise taxes vary. Cannabis Benchmarks estimates the population weighted average excise tax for Canada.

**CCSI is inclusive of the estimated Federal & Provincial cannabis excise taxes..

The CCSI was assessed at C$5.43 per gram this week, up 0.9% from last week’s C$5.39 per gram. This week’s price equates to US$1,924 per pound at the current exchange rate.

Include your weekly wholesale transactions in our price assessment by joining our Price Contributor Network

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SOURE: Cannabis Benchmarks, Health Canada
  • Statistics Canada recently released May retail cannabis sales for the country. Sales increased from April by C$2.5M to C$375.8M. To correct for the different number of days per month, we look at the data in terms of average daily sales in the above chart. The latest data shows average daily sales fell to C$12.1M in May, a decrease of 2.6% from April when a record-high figure was established.
  • However, this is the second month we have seen sales hold above the stagnant daily revenues observed from August 2021 through March 2022. In that period, sales were stuck between C$11.2M to C$11.6M per day, all while store counts increased and production variety grew. This raised concerns for the industry by suggesting that sales were reaching a saturation point or average sales prices were falling while sales volumes grew.
  • In May, sales dropped across all provinces from the previous month, with the exception of British Columbia, where sales grew slightly – by 0.5% month-on-month – to C$1.77M per day. All other major provinces saw sales drop by 2.3% – 2.8%.
  • If sales continue at the daily run rate for May, we should exceed C$4.36B in sales for 2022. (That calculation assumes daily sales average of C$12.1M between June and December.) This should paint the low-end expectation for sales this year, as the May figures precede the summer season, which generally sees higher seasonal sales, along with the end-of-year holiday period. Additionally, we continue to see growth in store counts and more online / delivery options, which should continue to pressure the illicit market’s share of total cannabis sales in the country.

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

12 August 2022 Copyright © 2022 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

August 5, 2022

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — August 5, 2022

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published August 5, 2022

The U.S. Cannabis Spot Index increased 1.6% to $1,064 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $18 to $1,324 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $581 to $2,066 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 2.5 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $2.35 and the simple average price was $2.92.

 

The relative transaction frequency of indoor product fell 1%, while that of deals for greenhouse product rose 1%. Outdoor transaction frequency was unchanged. 

 

 

The relative volume of indoor product fell 2%; that of greenhouse flower was unchanged, as was that of outdoor flower.  

 

The Oklahoma cannabis license moratorium, announced in May 2022, did not begin this week  on August 1, 2022, as originally planned by the Oklahoma Medical Marijuana Authority (OMMA). Instead, OMMA announced the moratorium on licenses for growers, processors, and dispensaries will begin on August 26, 2022.  

 

OMMA’s July 30 news release explains: “The language in the bill (HB 3208) states the moratorium begins Aug. 1, but the bill itself did not earn enough votes in the Oklahoma Legislature to take effect until Aug. 26 – the state has a two-thirds vote requirement for bills to take effect sooner than 90 days after adjournment.” The agency is still accepting applications, which can take 90 days to process, effectively giving the agency until November to process new license applications. OMMA will stop taking applications for new grower, processor, and dispensary applications at 12:01 a.m. August 26, 2022.  

 

Adria Berry, Executive Director of OMMA, issued a statement as part of the news release: “We made a mistake and interpreted the bill as written without taking the vote count into consideration. We’re double-checking every piece of legislation affecting OMMA from the last legislative session to ensure this won’t be repeated. We hold ourselves to a high standard, and we fell short in this instance. We hope the transparency in our message today is evidence that we take seriously the trust Oklahomans place in OMMA.”

 

February 2023 Implied Forward initially assessed at $1,035 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 80 pounds. The proportions of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 50%, 34%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively.

 

The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 85 pounds, 79 pounds, and 63 pounds, respectively.

 

 

At $1,055 per pound, the September 2022 Implied Forward represents a discount of 0.8% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,064 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines from this week's Premium Report:

Oregon

July Sales Inch Higher

Scofflaw Selling Cannabis Business? OLCC says ‘Not So Fast’

Nevada

Sales Down in 5 of last 6 months

Illinois

July Adult Use Sales Jump 7%

Oklahoma

License Moratorium Switcheroo – Now Starts August 26, 2022

Are you a licensed market participant in the U.S. or Canada? 

Do you support wholesale market transparency?

Become a member of our Price Contributor Network and receive discounted pricing and exclusive analysis!

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

5 August 2022.  Copyright © 2022 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — August 5, 2022

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Week Ending August 5, 2022
CCSI image 1 2022-08-05

*The provincial excise taxes vary. Cannabis Benchmarks estimates the population weighted average excise tax for Canada.

**CCSI is inclusive of the estimated Federal & Provincial cannabis excise taxes..

The CCSI was assessed at C$5.39 per gram this week, up 0.8% from last week’s C$5.34 per gram. This week’s price equates to US$1,898 per pound at the current exchange rate.

Include your weekly wholesale transactions in our price assessment by joining our Price Contributor Network

If you have not already done so, we invite you to join our Price Contributor Network, where market participants anonymously submit wholesale transactions to be included in our weekly price assessments. It takes two minutes to join and two minutes to submit each week, and comes with loads of extra data and market intelligence.

SOURE: Cannabis Benchmarks, Health Canada
  • Statistics Canada recently released May retail cannabis sales for the country. Sales increased from April by C$2.5M to C$375.8M. To correct for the different number of days per month, we look at the data in terms of average daily sales in the above chart. The latest data shows average daily sales fell to C$12.1M in May, a decrease of 2.6% from April when a record-high figure was established.
  • However, this is the second month we have seen sales hold above the stagnant daily revenues observed from August 2021 through March 2022. In that period, sales were stuck between C$11.2M to C$11.6M per day, all while store counts increased and production variety grew. This raised concerns for the industry by suggesting that sales were reaching a saturation point or average sales prices were falling while sales volumes grew.
  • In May, sales dropped across all provinces from the previous month, with the exception of British Columbia, where sales grew slightly – by 0.5% month-on-month – to C$1.77M per day. All other major provinces saw sales drop by 2.3% – 2.8%.
  • If sales continue at the daily run rate for May, we should exceed C$4.36B in sales for 2022. (That calculation assumes daily sales average of C$12.1M between June and December.) This should paint the low-end expectation for sales this year, as the May figures precede the summer season, which generally sees higher seasonal sales, along with the end-of-year holiday period. Additionally, we continue to see growth in store counts and more online / delivery options, which should continue to pressure the illicit market’s share of total cannabis sales in the country.

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

5 August 2022 Copyright © 2022 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved