June 11, 2021

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — June 18, 2021

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published June 18, 2021

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index increased 1.4% to $1,618 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $41 to $1,859 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $1,045 to $2,673 per pound range. The average reported deal size increased to 2.5 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $3.57 and the simple average price was $4.10.

 

The relative frequency of transactions for indoor flower increased by almost 3% this week. The relative frequency of trades for greenhouse product decreased by the same proportion, while that for deals for outdoor flower was steady.  

    

 

The relative volume of warehouse flower expanded by 2% this week. The relative volume of greenhouse product contracted by the same proportion, while that for outdoor flower was unchanged. 

The U.S. Spot Index was generally on the rise last month, as well as being up relative to April. The national composite price averaged $1,572 per pound in May, an increase of 2.9% from the prior month. May 2021’s mean U.S. Spot price is also up 17.7% year-over-year, from $1,336 per pound in May 2020. 

 

We noted in a recent report that retail sales in the 10 largest markets for which Cannabis Benchmarks assesses wholesale prices were up over 50% year-over-year in both March and April 2021. Early May sales data out of some states indicates that elevated demand is persisting. However, there are some signs that demand could be leveling off based on recently-released sales figures. 

 

 

In Oregon, for example, retail revenues fell from April to May 2021, breaking with the trend of increasing monthly sales in that span in each year from 2017 through 2020. Meanwhile, in Illinois, although total monthly adult-use sales increased month-over-month in May, average daily retail revenues in that sector of the state’s market declined last month for the first time in over a year.

July 2021 Implied Forward unchanged at $1,630 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 59.6 pounds. The proportions of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and  indoor-grown flower were 55%, 35%, and 10% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 72 pounds, 48 pounds, and 33 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,630 per pound, the July Implied Forward represents a premium of 0.7% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,618 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines from this week's Premium Report:

California

Tax Department Data Shows Volume of Wholesale Flower Entering the Licensed System Expanded by 69% from 2019-2020

Colorado

Consumer and Patient Demand Remained Strong in April, with Combined Sales Off Only Slightly from March

Massachusetts

Adult-Use Sales Climb to a New Record of $110 Million in May, but Growth in Average Daily Sales Slowed

Oklahoma

Medical Cannabis Dispensaries Tally over $85 Million in Sales in April; Sales and Patient Counts Have Stabilized Recently

Are you a licensed market participant in the U.S. or Canada? 

Do you support wholesale market transparency?

Become a member of our Price Contributor Network and receive discounted pricing and exclusive analysis!

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

18 June 2021.  Copyright © 2021 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — June 18, 2021

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Week Ending June 18, 2021
61821

*The provincial excise taxes vary. Cannabis Benchmarks estimates the population weighted average excise tax for Canada.

**CCSI is inclusive of the estimated Federal & Provincial cannabis excise taxes..

The CCSI was assessed at C$5.53 per gram this week, down 0.8% from last week’s C$5.57 per gram. This week’s price equates to US$2,073 per pound at the current exchange rate.

Include your weekly wholesale transactions in our price assessment by joining our Price Contributor Network

If you have not already done so, we invite you to join our Price Contributor Network, where market participants anonymously submit wholesale transactions to be included in our weekly price assessments. It takes two minutes to join and two minutes to submit each week, and comes with loads of extra data and market intelligence.

This week we dive further into household expenditure data from Statistics Canada, issued quarterly. The data shows some very interesting and positive trends for the legal cannabis sector. As we have noted in the past, major alcohol and tobacco companies have made significant investments in cannabis operations over the last few years. They have made these investments as a hedge, to ensure their current business operations do not lose market share to the growing cannabis usage that is being captured gradually by legal businesses. 

 

Some of the notable cannabis partnerships include: 

 

·       Constellation Brands + Canopy

·       Molson/Coors + Hexo

·       Anheuser-Busch InBev + Tilray

·       Altria + Cronos

·       Imperial Brands + Auxly

Soda, energy drinks, and sports drink markets are also studying the growth of this emerging industry. Several mainstream consumer packaged goods (CPG) heavyweights, including Coca-Cola and PepsiCo, are reportedly considering the launch of THC and / or CBD infused products, but nothing has materialized yet from major CPG firms. 


So, should traditional players be threatened by the cannabis movement? Data released by Statistics Canada to date shows that alcohol and tobacco sales remain much stronger than cannabis sales, and that increased cannabis sales have only slightly impacted those categories negatively. As seen in the chart below, the overall category of spending related to tobacco, alcohol, and cannabis has grown over the past three years by 15% to C$13.4B. Over 25% of that growth comes from cannabis. 

Source: Cannabis Benchmarks, Health Canada

In the chart above, we also show the percentage of spending devoted to cannabis. Although cannabis’ share is not significant yet at only 12.6% of total spending, it is an emerging category that continues to expand with new product offerings and a growing consumer base. We estimate cannabis will grow to 14-15% of total spending by the end of 2021, with accelerated adoption amongst the younger generation and growing accessibility in major provinces such as Ontario.

For more data and analytics like this, subscribe to the Cannabis Market Insights report developed in collaboration Nasdaq. This in-depth monthly report provides exclusive data and analysis on the legal cannabis industry, focusing largely on the Canadian cannabis market, as well as the cannabis equities market in the U.S.

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

18 June 2021 Copyright © 2021 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved.

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX — June 11, 2021

CANADA CANNABIS SPOT INDEX (CCSI) 

Week Ending June 11, 2021
61121

*The provincial excise taxes vary. Cannabis Benchmarks estimates the population weighted average excise tax for Canada.

**CCSI is inclusive of the estimated Federal & Provincial cannabis excise taxes..

The CCSI was assessed at C$5.57 per gram this week, up 0.8% from last week’s C$5.53 per gram. This week’s price equates to US$2,090 per pound at the current exchange rate.

Include your weekly wholesale transactions in our price assessment by joining our Price Contributor Network

If you have not already done so, we invite you to join our Price Contributor Network, where market participants anonymously submit wholesale transactions to be included in our weekly price assessments. It takes two minutes to join and two minutes to submit each week, and comes with loads of extra data and market intelligence.

This week, we review Canada’s recreational cannabis store count. The number of stores continues to climb steadily across the country, making the legal cannabis system more accessible to consumers. Our latest count shows the number of stores open for business reached 2,046 as of the end of May. This is up by 1,143 stores, or 126%, compared to May 2020. As can be seen in the chart below, we expect the trend to continue throughout this year.

Source: Cannabis Benchmarks

With each province having different licensing processes, we see different growth rates.

Source: Cannabis Benchmarks

Of the top four provinces, Alberta’s store count seems to be plateauing, at least for the moment. We do not expect much additional new store growth and also anticipate  some stores to close, due to strong competition with stores being located close to each other in major cities. British Columbia (BC) increased its store count at a steady pace in 2020, but we expect that growth rate to slow in 2021. At the moment, the BC government only reports 22 stores in the queue that are licensed and ready to open. We anticipate approximately 10 stores to open in BC each month through 2021. 

 

In Quebec and most of the Maritime provinces, provincial governments control the retail environment, with each province owning both the distribution and retail parts of the supply chain. With the province in control, the rollout has been quite slow. Quebec currently has 68 cannabis retail locations and we anticipate that will grow at a pace of only three new stores per month this year. 

 

Ontario continues to be the biggest driving force for new cannabis retail stores. Ontario had the slowest initial rollout of licensed stores among all provinces, but that has drastically changed since Q2 2020. The speed at which new stores are opening for business is helping to drive strong sales growth in the province, a trend that looks as if it will persist for the foreseeable future. Based only on current applications in the pipeline, it appears that Ontario’s retail rollout will continue at a strong pace in 2021. The Ontario government has announced a target of 1,000 total stores by September 2021, and it appears the provincial government will meet that goal.

 

Overall,we see substantial, strong growth of the country’s legal market continuing, providing an example for the increasing number of U.S. states contemplating legalization, as well as America’s federal government.

For more data and analytics like this, subscribe to the Cannabis Market Insights report developed in collaboration Nasdaq. This in-depth monthly report provides exclusive data and analysis on the legal cannabis industry, focusing largely on the Canadian cannabis market, as well as the cannabis equities market in the U.S.

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

11 June 2021 Copyright © 2021 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved.

June 10, 2021

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — June 11, 2021

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published June 11, 2021

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index declined 1.2% to $1,596 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price decreased $6 to $1,818 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $1,042 to $2,594 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 2.4 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $3.52 and the simple average price was $4.01.

 

The relative frequencies of transactions for each grow type were relatively stable from last week.     

 

 

The relative volume of outdoor flower contracted by over 1% this week. The relative volume of greenhouse product expanded by the same proportion, while that for warehouse flower was unchanged.

The U.S. Spot Index was generally on the rise last month, as well as being up relative to April. The national composite price averaged $1,572 per pound in May, an increase of 2.9% from the prior month. May 2021’s mean U.S. Spot price is also up 17.7% year-over-year, from $1,336 per pound in May 2020. 

 

We noted in a recent report that retail sales in the 10 largest markets for which Cannabis Benchmarks assesses wholesale prices were up over 50% year-over-year in both March and April 2021. Early May sales data out of some states indicates that elevated demand is persisting. However, there are some signs that demand could be leveling off based on recently-released sales figures. 

 

 

In Oregon, for example, retail revenues fell from April to May 2021, breaking with the trend of increasing monthly sales in that span in each year from 2017 through 2020. Meanwhile, in Illinois, although total monthly adult-use sales increased month-over-month in May, average daily retail revenues in that sector of the state’s market declined last month for the first time in over a year.

July 2021 Implied Forward up $15 at $1,630 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 53.4 pounds. The proportions of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and  indoor-grown flower were 52%, 36%, and 12% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 67 pounds, 42 pounds, and 29 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,630 per pound, the July Implied Forward represents a premium of 2.1% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,596 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines from this week's Premium Report:

California

Tax Department Data Shows Volume of Wholesale Flower Entering the Licensed System Expanded by 69% from 2019-2020

Colorado

Consumer and Patient Demand Remained Strong in April, with Combined Sales Off Only Slightly from March

Massachusetts

Adult-Use Sales Climb to a New Record of $110 Million in May, but Growth in Average Daily Sales Slowed

Oklahoma

Medical Cannabis Dispensaries Tally over $85 Million in Sales in April; Sales and Patient Counts Have Stabilized Recently

Are you a licensed market participant in the U.S. or Canada? 

Do you support wholesale market transparency?

Become a member of our Price Contributor Network and receive discounted pricing and exclusive analysis!

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

11 June 2021.  Copyright © 2021 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved

June 4, 2021

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — June 4, 2021

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published June 4, 2021

U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 2.1% to $1,616 per pound.

 

The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $12 to $1,824 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $1,047 to $2,601 per pound range. The average reported deal size was nominally unchanged at 2.4 pounds. In grams, the Spot price was $3.56 and the simple average price was $4.02.

 

The relative frequency of transactions for greenhouse flower decreased by almost 2%. The relative frequency of deals for indoor product increased by the same proportion, while that for trades for outdoor flower was stable. 

    

 

The relative volume of outdoor flower contracted by 3% this week. The relative volume of warehouse product expanded by the same proportion, while that for greenhouse flower was unchanged.

The U.S. Spot Index was generally on the rise last month, as well as being up relative to April. The national composite price averaged $1,572 per pound in May, an increase of 2.9% from the prior month. May 2021’s mean U.S. Spot price is also up 17.7% year-over-year, from $1,336 per pound in May 2020. 

 

We noted in a recent report that retail sales in the 10 largest markets for which Cannabis Benchmarks assesses wholesale prices were up over 50% year-over-year in both March and April 2021. Early May sales data out of some states indicates that elevated demand is persisting. However, there are some signs that demand could be leveling off based on recently-released sales figures. 

 

 

In Oregon, for example, retail revenues fell from April to May 2021, breaking with the trend of increasing monthly sales in that span in each year from 2017 through 2020. Meanwhile, in Illinois, although total monthly adult-use sales increased month-over-month in May, average daily retail revenues in that sector of the state’s market declined last month for the first time in over a year.

December 2021 Implied Forward initially assessed at $1,610 per pound.

 

The average reported forward deal size was 52.9 pounds. The proportions of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and  indoor-grown flower were 52%, 35%, and 13% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 66 pounds, 42 pounds, and 29 pounds, respectively.

 

At $1,615 per pound, the July Implied Forward represents a discount of 0.1% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,616 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.

Headlines from this week's Premium Report:

Oregon

Monthly Sales Decrease from April to May for the First Time in Four Years, but Still Exceed $105 Million

Nevada

Legal Sales Boomed in March, Rising to a New Record of Almost $97 Million

Arizona

Report: Preliminary Tax Data Puts Combined Adult-Use and Medical Cannabis Sales at Roughly $120 Million in March

Illinois

May’s Adult-Use Sales Set Another Record, but Average Daily Sales Declined for the First Time in Over a Year

Are you a licensed market participant in the U.S. or Canada? 

Do you support wholesale market transparency?

Become a member of our Price Contributor Network and receive discounted pricing and exclusive analysis!

Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC

4 June 2021.  Copyright © 2021 New Leaf Data Services, LLC.  All rights reserved