U.S. Cannabis Spot Index — Published July 26, 2019
U.S. Cannabis Spot Index up 0.7% to $1,359 per pound.
The simple average (non-volume weighted) price increased $27 to $1,555 per pound, with 68% of transactions (one standard deviation) in the $782 to $2,327 per pound range. The average reported deal size declined to 2.2 pounds from 2.3 pounds last week. In grams, the Spot price was $3.00 and the simple average price was $3.43.
The relative frequency of trades for indoor flower increased by 3% week-over-week. The relative frequencies of transactions involving greenhouse and outdoor product decreased by 1% and 2%, respectively. Greenhouse flower’s share of the total documented weight moved nationally contracted by 4% this week. The relative volumes of warehouse and outdoor product each expanded by 2% relative to the week prior.
The U.S. Spot Index rose by 0.7% this week to settle at $1,359 per pound, establishing a new year-to-date high for the third straight week. Monthly average prices have also been on the rise recently. July is the third consecutive month to see an increase in its average Spot price. While demand has been strong in the major adult-use markets, there are signs that downward pressure on wholesale prices could emerge in some states in the weeks and months ahead. California’s legal market has been experiencing growing pains as it works to establish itself, but with nearly all temporary cultivation licenses expired, those businesses that gained annual and provisional permits appear poised to generate sufficient, if not excessive, supply. In Oregon, mid and late summer harvests boosted supply around this point in both 2017 and 2018. Finally, the volume and quality of the fall harvest has yet to be determined, as is whether record-setting demand levels are enough to absorb the surge of new inventory that will come in Q4.
The national volume-weighted price for flower to be sold to general consumers increased for the second consecutive week on rises in that sector of the market in California and Colorado, as well as in Oregon’s and Alaska’s licensed systems. Prices for medical flower sank for the second straight week, despite many medical-only markets seeing increases in their Spot Indices. However, downturns in the medical portion of California’s market, along with a slight decline in Michigan and a decrease in Maine’s Spot, were the primary drivers of the downward slide in national rates for product designated as medical.
August Forward assessed up $25 to $1,300 per pound.
The average reported forward deal size was 48 pounds. The proportion of forward deals for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower was 55%, 29%, and 16% of forward arrangements, respectively. The average forward deal sizes for monthly delivery for outdoor, greenhouse, and indoor-grown flower were 42 pounds, 52 pounds, and 64 pounds, respectively.
At $1,300 per pound, the August Forward represents a discount of 4.3% relative to the current U.S. Spot Price of $1,359 per pound. The premium or discount for each Forward price, relative to the U.S. Spot Index, is illustrated in the table below.
Headlines From This Week’s Premium Report:
- State Cultivation Licensing Data Shows Permitted Growers Outnumber Legal Storefronts by About 2:1, Similar to Ratio in Oregon
State Spot Index Rises to New Annual Peak for the Fifth Straight Week as Rates for Both Indoor and Greenhouse Product Ascend
- Retail Sales Revenue for June Reaches Record High for State’s Market, But Sales Volume Figures Show Plateauing or Decreasing Demand in Q2
- Regulators Loosen Some Reporting Requirements as Problems with Traceability System Persist
- Sales Rebound in May, State Spot Index Also on the Rise in that Month
- Adult-Use Retailers Gross Over $40 Million in Sales in June; State Spot Index Inched Upward as Harvest Data Showed Contraction in Production Compared to May
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Cannabis Benchmarks®, a division of New Leaf Data Services, LLC
26 July 2019. Copyright © 2019 New Leaf Data Services, LLC. All rights reserved